Résumé: Recent assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) have highlighted the risks to humanity arising from the unsustainable use of natural resources. Thus far, land, freshwater, and ocean exploitation have been the chief causes of biodiversity loss. Climate change is projected to be a rapidly increasing additional driver for biodiversity loss. Since climate change and biodiversity loss impact human societies everywhere, bold solutions are required that integrate environmental and societal objectives. As yet, most existing international biodiversity targets have overlooked climate change impacts. At the same time, climate change mitigation measures themselves may harm biodiversity directly. The Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 framework offers the important opportunity to address the interactions between climate change and biodiversity and revise biodiversity targets accordingly by better aligning these with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. We identify the considerable number of existing and proposed post-2020 biodiversity targets that risk being severely compromised due to climate change, even if other barriers to their achievement were removed. Our analysis suggests that the next set of biodiversity targets explicitly addresses climate change-related risks since many aspirational goals will not be feasible under even lower-end projections of future warming. Adopting more flexible and dynamic approaches to conservation, rather than static goals, would allow us to respond flexibly to changes in habitats, genetic resources, species composition, and ecosystem functioning and leverage biodiversity’s capacity to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Résumé: Multiple, coordinated goals and holistic actions are critical

Résumé: The marine ecosystem off British Columbia (BC), Canada, has experienced various changes in the last two decades. Understanding how stressors interactively and cumulatively affect commercially important fish species is key to moving towards ecosystem-based fisheries management. Because it is challenging to assess the cumulative effects of multiple stressors by using empirical data alone, a dynamic, individual-based spatially-explicit ecosystem modeling platform such as OSMOSE represents a valuable tool to simulate ecological processes and comprehensively evaluate how stressors cumulatively impact modelled species. In this study, we employed OSMOSE to investigate the cumulative effects of fishing, plankton biomass change, and marine mammal consumption on the dynamics of some fish species and the BC marine ecosystem as a whole. We specifically simulated ecosystem dynamics during the last 20 years under two sets of scenarios: (1) unfavorable conditions from the perspective of commercial fish species (i.e., doubling fishing rates, halving plankton biomass, and doubling marine mammal biomass, acting individually or collectively); and (2) favorable conditions with the three factors having opposite changes (i.e., halving fishing rates, doubling plankton biomass, and halving marine mammal biomass, acting individually or collectively). Our results indicate that, under unfavorable conditions, the degree to which species biomass was reduced varied among species, and that negative synergistic and negative dampened effects were dominant under historical and doubled fishing mortality rates, respectively. Under favorable conditions, species biomasses did not increase as much as expected due to the existence of complex predator-prey interactions among fish species, and positive synergistic and positive dampened effects were prevailing under historical and halved fishing mortality rates, respectively. The ecosystem total biomass and the biomass to fisheries yield ratio were found to be good ecological indicators to represent ecosystem changes and track the impacts from the multiple drivers of change. Our research provides insights on how fisheries management should adapt to prepare for potential future impacts of climate change.

Résumé: The Ocean Decade: A True Ecosystem Modeling Challenge

Résumé: An end-to-end model named OSMOSE-GoL has been built for the Gulf of Lions, the main French Mediterranean fishing area. This spatialized dynamic model links the coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model Eco3M-S/SYMPHONIE (LTL – low trophic level model) to OSMOSE (HTL – high trophic level model). It includes 15 compartments of living organisms, five from the LTL model (i.e. nanophytoplankton, microphytoplankton, nanozooplankton, microzooplankton and mesozooplankton) and ten from the HTL model (northern krill, southern shortfin squid, European pilchard, European anchovy, European sprat, Atlantic horse mackerel, Atlantic mackerel, blue whiting, European hake and Atlantic bluefin tuna). With the exception of northern krill and European sprat, all HTL species are commercially exploited and undergo fisheries mortality pressure. The modeled species represent more than 70% of annual catches in this area. This paper presents the parameterization, calibration and evaluation of this model with satellite data for phytoplankton and with biomass, landings, diet and trophic level data for HTL groups. For most species, the diets in output of OSMOSE-GoL are similar to field and literature data in terms of dominant prey groups and species. However, some differences were observed. Various reasons may explain the mismatch between the modeled diet and field data. Benthic prey sometimes observed in the stomach content of the HTL predators were not modeled in OSMOSE-GoL. Field studies were carried out at specific periods and locations, while our data concern the period 2001–2004 and the entire modeled domain. Inter- and intra-annual variations in spatial distribution and density of prey may also explain these differences. The model estimates trophic level values similar to those cited in the literature for all the HTL compartments. These values are also close to the trophic levels estimated by a previous Ecopath model for the same area and period. Even though some improvements are still possible, this model may already be of use to explore fishery or Marine Protected Areas scenarios for socio-ecosystem management issues.

Résumé: Abstract. We investigate reference points for ecosystem indicators in support of an Ecosystem Approach to Fishery. In particular, we assess indicator capacity

Résumé: The time is now
For decades, scientists have been raising calls for societal changes that will reduce our impacts on nature. Though much conservation has occurred, our natural environment continues to decline under the weight of our consumption. Humanity depends directly on the output of nature; thus, this decline will affect us, just as it does the other species with which we share this world. Díaz et al. review the findings of the largest assessment of the state of nature conducted as of yet. They report that the state of nature, and the state of the equitable distribution of nature's support, is in serious decline. Only immediate transformation of global business-as-usual economies and operations will sustain nature as we know it, and us, into the future.
Science, this issue p. eaax3100
Structured Abstract
BACKGROUNDHuman actions have long been known to drive declines in nature, and there is growing awareness of how globalization means that these drivers increasingly act at a distance (telecoupling). However, evidence from different disciplines has largely accumulated in parallel, and the global effects of telecouplings have never been addressed comprehensively. Now, the first integrated global-scale intergovernmental assessment of the status, trends, and future of the links between people and nature provides an unprecedented picture of the extent of our mutual dependence, the breadth and depth of the ongoing and impending crisis, and the interconnectedness among sectors and regions.
ADVANCESHuman impacts on life on Earth have increased sharply since the 1970s. The world is increasingly managed to maximize the flow of material contributions from nature to keep up with rising demands for food, energy, timber, and more, with global trade increasing the geographic separation between supply and demand. This unparalleled appropriation of nature is causing the fabric of life on which humanity depends to fray and unravel: Most indicators of the state of nature, whether monitored by natural and social scientists or by Indigenous Peoples and local communities, are declining. These include the number and population size of wild species, the number of local varieties of domesticated species, the distinctness of ecological communities, and the extent and integrity of many terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. As a consequence, nature’s capacity to provide crucial benefits has also declined, including environmental processes underpinning human health and nonmaterial contributions to human quality of life. The costs are distributed unequally, as are the benefits of an expanding global economy.These trends in nature and its contributions to people are projected to worsen in the coming decades—unevenly so among different regions—unless rapid and integrated action is taken to reduce the direct drivers responsible for most change over the past 50 years: land and sea use change, direct harvesting of many plants and animals, climate change (whose impacts are set to accelerate), pollution, and the spread of invasive alien species. Exploratory scenarios suggest that a world with increased regional barriers—resonating with recent geopolitical trends—will yield more negative global trends in nature, as well as the greatest disparity in trends across regions, greater than a world with liberal financial markets, and much greater than one that prioritizes and integrates actions toward sustainable development. Evidence from target-seeking scenarios and pathways indicates that a world that achieves many of the global biodiversity targets and sustainability goals related to food, energy, climate, and water is not—yet—beyond reach, but that no single action can get us there.
OUTLOOKOur comprehensive assessment of status, trends, and possible futures for nature and people suggests that action at the level of direct drivers of nature decline, although necessary, is not sufficient to prevent further deterioration of the fabric of life on Earth. Reversal of recent declines—and a sustainable global future—are only possible with urgent transformative change that tackles the root causes: the interconnected economic, sociocultural, demographic, political, institutional, and technological indirect drivers behind the direct drivers. As well as a pan-sectoral approach to conserving and restoring the nature that underpins many goals, this transformation will need innovative governance approaches that are adaptive; inclusive; informed by existing and new evidence; and integrative across systems, jurisdictions, and tools. Although the challenge is formidable, every delay will make the task even harder. Crucially, our analysis pinpoints five priority interventions (“levers”) and eight leverage points for intervention in the indirect drivers of global social and economic systems where they can make the biggest difference. <img class=“fragment-image” aria-describedby=“F1-caption” src=“https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/366/6471/eaax3100/F1.medium.gif”/> Download high-res image Open in new tab Download Powerpoint Traditional diversity-rich human landscapes, and the livelihoods and identities that depend on them, face global threats.Mosaics of crops, forest, and pasture have been maintained for millennia around the world. Now, they are under increasing threat from climate change and large-scale land use change to accommodate global demands for commodities. So are the livelihoods and cultural identity of the peoples that live in them, such as this woman collecting fodder for her flock in the Checacupe district, Perú.Photo credit www.estebantapella.com
The human impact on life on Earth has increased sharply since the 1970s, driven by the demands of a growing population with rising average per capita income. Nature is currently supplying more materials than ever before, but this has come at the high cost of unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, distinctness of local ecological communities, abundance and number of wild species, and the number of local domesticated varieties. Such changes reduce vital benefits that people receive from nature and threaten the quality of life of future generations. Both the benefits of an expanding economy and the costs of reducing nature’s benefits are unequally distributed. The fabric of life on which we all depend—nature and its contributions to people—is unravelling rapidly. Despite the severity of the threats and lack of enough progress in tackling them to date, opportunities exist to change future trajectories through transformative action. Such action must begin immediately, however, and address the root economic, social, and technological causes of nature’s deterioration.

Résumé: Moving toward ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) necessitates a suite of ecological indicators that are responsive to fishing pressure, capable of tracking changes in the state of marine ecosystems, and related to management objectives. In this study, we employed the gradient forest method to assess the performance of 14 key ecological indicators in terms of specificity, sensitivity and the detection of thresholds for EBFM across ten marine ecosystems using four modelling frameworks (Ecopath with Ecosim, OSMOSE, Atlantis, and a multi-species size-spectrum model). Across seven of the ten ecosystems, high specificity to fishing pressure was found for most of the 14 indicators. The indicators biomass to fisheries catch ratio (B/C), mean lifespan and trophic level of fish community were found to have wide utility for evaluating fishing impacts. The biomass indicators, which have been identified as Essential Ocean Variables by the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), had lower performance for evaluating fishing impacts, yet they were most sensitive to changes in primary productivity. The indicator B/C was most sensitive to low levels of fishing pressure with a generally consistent threshold response around 0.4*FMSY (fishing mortality rate at maximum sustainable yield) across nine of the ten ecosystems. Over 50% of the 14 indicators had threshold responses at, or below ∼0.6* FMSY for most ecosystems, indicating that these ecosystems would have already crossed a threshold for most indicators when fished at FMSY. This research provides useful insights on the performance of indicators, which contribute to facilitating the worldwide move toward EBFM.

Résumé: Abstract. In the context of ecosystem-based fisheries management, which should consider changing and uncertain environmental conditions, the development of eco

Résumé: While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea is one of the main hotspots of marine biodiversity in the world. The combined pressures of fishing activity and climate change have also made it a hotspot of global change amidst increasing concern about the worsening status of exploited marine species. To anticipate the impacts of global changes in the Mediterranean Sea, more integrated modelling approaches are needed, which can then help policymakers prioritize management actions and formulate strategies to mitigate impacts and adapt to changes. The aim of this study was to develop a holistic model of marine biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea with an explicit representation of the spatial, multispecies dynamics of exploited resources subject to the combined influence of climate variability and fishing pressure. To this end, we used the individual-based OSMOSE model (Object-oriented Simulator of Marine ecOSystEms), including 100 marine species (fish, cephalopods and crustaceans) representing about 95% of the total declared catch, at a high spatial resolution (400 km2) and a large spatial scale (the entire Mediterranean basin) – the first time such a resolution and scale have been modelled. We then combined OSMOSE with the NEMOMED 12 physical model and the Eco3M-S biogeochemical low trophic level model to build the end-to-end model, OSMOSE-MED. We fitted OSMOSE-MED model with observed or estimated biomass and commercial catch data using a likelihood approach and an evolutionary optimization algorithm. The outputs of OSMOSE-MED were then verified against observed biomass and catch data, and compared with independent datasets (MEDITS data, diet composition and trophic levels). The model results – at different hierarchical levels, from individuals to the scale of the ecosystem – were consistent with current knowledge of the structure, functioning and dynamics of the ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea. While the model could be further improved in future iterations, all the modelling steps – the comprehensive representation of key ecological processes and feedback, the selective parameterization of the model, and the comparison with observed data in the validation process – strengthened the predictive performance of OSMOSE-MED and thus its relevance as an impact model to explore the future of marine biodiversity under scenarios of global change. It is a promising tool to support ecosystem-based fishery management in the Mediterranean Sea.

Résumé: Developing enduring capacity to monitor ocean life requires investing in people and their institutions to build infrastructure, ownership, and long-term support networks. International initiatives can enhance access to scientific data, tools and methodologies, and develop local expertise to use them, but without ongoing engagement may fail to have lasting benefit. Linking capacity development and technology transfer to sustained ocean monitoring is a win-win proposition. Trained local experts will benefit from joining global communities of experts who are building the comprehensive Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). This two-way exchange will benefit scientists and policy makers in developing and developed countries. The first step toward the GOOS is complete: identification of an initial set of biological Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) that incorporate the GEO Essential Biological Variables (EBVs), and link to the physical and biogeochemical EOVs. EOVs provide a globally consistent approach to monitoring where the costs of monitoring oceans can be shared and where capacity and expertise can be transferred globally. Integrating monitoring with existing international reporting and policy development connects ocean observations with agreements underlying many countries’ commitments and obligations, including under SDG 14, thus catalysing progress towards sustained use of the ocean. Combining scientific expertise with international capacity development initiatives can help meet the need of developing countries to engage in the agreed UN initiatives including new negotiations for management of Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction, and the needs of the global community to understand how the ocean is changing.

Résumé: Climate change is shifting the abundance and distribution of marine species with consequences for ecosystem functioning, seafood supply, management and conservation. Several approaches for future projection exist but these have never been compared systematically to assess their variability. We conducted standardized ensemble projections including 6 global fisheries and marine ecosystem models, forced with 2 Earth-system models and 4 emission scenarios in a fished and unfished ocean, to derive average trends and associated uncertainties. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (standard deviation 4%) under low and 17% (standard deviation 11%) under high emissions by 2100, primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. These climate-change effects were slightly weaker for larger animals and in a fished ocean. Considerable regional variation ranged from strong biomass increases in high latitudes to strong decreases in mid-low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to differences among ecosystem or Earth-system models were similar, suggesting equal need for model improvement. Our ensemble projections provide the most comprehensive outlook on potential climate-driven ecological changes in the ocean to date. Realized future trends will largely depend on how fisheries and management adapt to these changes in a changing climate.

Résumé: Measurements of the status and trends of key indicators for the ocean and marine life are required to inform policy and management in the context of growing human uses of marine resources, coastal development, and climate change. Two synergistic efforts identify specific priority variables for monitoring: Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) through the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), and Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) from the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON). Both systems support reporting against internationally agreed conventions and treaties. GOOS, established under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), plays a leading role in coordinating global monitoring of the ocean and in the definition of EOVs. GEO BON is a global biodiversity observation network that coordinates observations to enhance management of the world’s biodiversity and promote both the awareness and accounting of ecosystem services. Convergence and agreement between these two efforts are required to streamline existing and new marine observation programs to advance scientific knowledge effectively and to support the sustainable use and management of ocean spaces and resources. In this context, the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON), a thematic component of GEO BON, is collaborating with GOOS, the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS), and the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project to ensure that EBVs and EOVs are complementary, representing alternative uses of a common set of scientific measurements. This work is informed by the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM), an intergovernmental body of technical experts that helps international coordination on best practices for observing, data management and services, combined with capacity development expertise. Characterizing biodiversity and understanding its drivers will require incorporation of observations from traditional and molecular taxonomy, animal tagging and tracking efforts, ocean biogeochemistry, and ocean observatory initiatives including the deep ocean and seafloor. The partnership between large-scale ocean observing and product distribution initiatives (MBON, OBIS, JCOMM, and GOOS) is an expedited, effective way to support international policy-level assessments (e.g., the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services or IPBES), along with the implementation of international development goals (e.g., the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals).

Résumé: Ecological indicators are widely used to characterise ecosystem health. In the marine environment, indicators have been developed to assess the ecosystem effects of fishing to support an ecosystem approach to fisheries. However, very little work on the performance and robustness of ecological indicators has been carried out. An important aspect of robustness is that indicators should respond specifically to changes in the pressures they are designed to detect (e.g. fishing) rather than changes in other drivers (e.g. environment). We adopted a multi-model approach to compare and test the specificity of commonly used ecological indicators to capture fishing effects in the presence of environmental change and under different fishing strategies. We tested specificity in the presence of two types of environmental change: “random”, representing interannual climate variability and “directional”, representing climate change. We used phytoplankton biomass as a proxy of the environmental conditions, as this driver was comparable across all ecosystem models, then applied a signal-to-noise ratio analysis to test the specificity of indicators with random environmental change. For directional change, we used mean gradients to apportion the quantity of change in the indicators due to fishing and the environment. We found that depending on the fishing strategy and environmental change, ecological indicators could range from high to low specificity to fishing. As expected, the specificity of indicators to fishing almost always decreased as environmental variability increased. In 55–76% of the scenarios run with directional change in phytoplankton biomass across fishing strategies and ecosystem models, indicators were significantly more responsive to changes in fishing than to changes in phytoplankton biomass. This important result makes the tested ecological indicators good candidates to support fisheries management in a changing environment. Among the indicators, the catch over biomass ratio was most often the most specific indicator to fishing, whereas mean length was most often the most sensitive to change in phytoplankton biomass. However, the responses of indicators were highly variable depending on the ecosystem and fishing strategy under consideration. We therefore recommend that indicators should be tested in the particular ecosystem before they are used for monitoring and management purposes.

Résumé: Fisheries have had major negative impacts on marine ecosystems, and effective fisheries management and governance are needed to achieve sustainable fisheries, biodiversity conservation goals and thus good ecosystem status. To date, the IndiSeas programme (Indicators for the Seas) has focussed on assessing the ecological impacts of fishing at the ecosystem scale using ecological indicators. Here, we explore fisheries ‘Management Effectiveness’ and ‘Governance Quality’ and relate this to ecosystem health and status. We developed a dedicated expert survey, focused at the ecosystem level, with a series of questions addressing aspects of management and governance, from an ecosystem-based perspective, using objective and evidence-based criteria. The survey was completed by ecosystem experts (managers and scientists) and results analysed using ranking and multivariate methods. Results were further examined for selected ecosystems, using expert knowledge, to explore the overall findings in greater depth. Higher scores for ‘Management Effectiveness’ and ‘Governance Quality’ were significantly and positively related to ecosystems with better ecological status. Key factors that point to success in delivering fisheries and conservation objectives were as follows: the use of reference points for management, frequent review of stock assessments, whether Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) catches were being accounted for and addressed, and the inclusion of stakeholders. Additionally, we found that the implementation of a long-term management plan, including economic and social dimensions of fisheries in exploited ecosystems, was a key factor in successful, sustainable fisheries management. Our results support the thesis that good ecosystem-based management and governance, sustainable fisheries and healthy ecosystems go together.

Résumé: When models are aimed to support decision-making, their credibility is essential to consider. Model fitting to observed data is one major criterion to assess such credibility. However, due to the complexity of ecosystem models making their calibration more challenging, the scientific community has given more attention to the exploration of model behavior than to a rigorous comparison to observations. This work highlights some issues related to the comparison of complex ecosystem models to data and proposes a methodology for a sequential multi-phases calibration (or parameter estimation) of ecosystem models. We first propose two criteria to classify the parameters of a model: the model dependency and the time variability of the parameters. Then, these criteria and the availability of approximate initial estimates are used as decision rules to determine which parameters need to be estimated, and their precedence order in the sequential calibration process. The end-to-end (E2E) ecosystem model ROMS-PISCES-OSMOSE applied to the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is used as an illustrative case study. The model is calibrated using an evolutionary algorithm and a likelihood approach to fit time series data of landings, abundance indices and catch at length distributions from 1992 to 2008. Testing different calibration schemes regarding the number of phases, the precedence of the parameters' estimation, and the consideration of time varying parameters, the results show that the multiple-phase calibration conducted under our criteria allowed to improve the model fit.

Résumé: The Object-oriented Simulator of Marine ecoSystem Exploitation (OSMOSE) is one of the end-to-end models developed for ecosystem dynamic simulation and management strategy evaluation (MSE) in support of ecosystem-based fishery management (EBFM). However, the implementation of such integrated models has been limited due to lack of data, and their performance in advising fisheries management has been rarely evaluated. We developed an end-to-end model (OSMOSE-JZB) representing organisms of high and low trophic levels in the Jiaozhou Bay, a temperate bay in China with limited available data. We evaluated the performance of the model for simulating the ecosystem dynamics by comparing the model-predicted species biomass, size structure, trophic level, and mortality with relevant data derived from scientific surveys and literature. In general, the model-predicted species biomass and size ranges were consistent with observations. However, the size structure of the two dominant fish species showed some discrepancies between the model simulations and observations. The predicted mean trophic levels from OSMOSE-JZB were closer to the values derived from an Ecopath model of the same region, compared to the values derived from empirical isotope analysis. The model's output suggested that predation mortality appeared to be the main source of mortality for younger individuals compared to starvation and fishing mortality. This study suggests that the OSMOSE-JZB performs well under a data-poor situation and can be considered as a baseline ecosystem model for developing EBFM.

Résumé: End-to-end ecosystem modeling platforms, including OSMOSE, are key tools for informing ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). End-to-end models ideally implement two-way interactions between model components, yet two-way interactions between high trophic level (HTL) functional groups and humans (fisheries managers and fishers) are currently missing in OSMOSE. We developed a management strategy evaluation (MSE) framework for OSMOSE, which allows for feedback between HTL functional groups and fisheries managers. This framework couples OSMOSE to a management procedure integrating decision rules and accounting for scientific uncertainty and the acceptable risk of overfishing. We applied the MSE framework to the OSMOSE model of the West Florida Shelf, so as to conduct an evaluation of total allowable catch (TAC) strategies for red grouper (Epinephelus morio) in a context of episodic events of natural mortality. Our simulations indicate that TAC strategies that assume higher scientific uncertainty and/or lower acceptable risk of overfishing result in higher biomass-related metrics for red grouper. However, the levels of scientific uncertainty and acceptable risk of overfishing impose a trade-off between biomass-related and catch-related metrics for red grouper. Our simulations also indicate that updating red grouper TAC more frequently in a context of episodic events of natural mortality does not have a large impact on biomass-related and catch-related metrics for red grouper and other functional groups. The MSE we conducted for red grouper is strategic, and its outcomes, which were obtained under a specific set of assumptions, must be considered preliminary. We discuss how future research could help enhance understanding of the possible impacts of TAC strategies for red grouper. The MSE framework designed for OSMOSE links the dynamics of HTL functional groups to that of fisheries managers, thereby allowing OSMOSE to be better suited for informing EBFM. This framework is an invaluable asset in assessing the performance of fisheries management strategies, but could also be used for other purposes, such as the evaluation of research monitoring programs.

Résumé: Given the ecological importance and high socio-economic value of the fishery of the Gulf of Gabes, an end-to-end model was applied to its continental shelf ecosystem to characterize the structure of the food web in the 2000s. This approach consisted in forcing a high trophic level model (OSMOSE) with an existing biogeochemical model (Eco3M-MED) representing the seasonal dynamics of the low trophic levels. The two models were linked through trophic interactions to represent the ecosystem dynamics from primary producers to top predators. In this study, we developed the multispecies, individual-based model OSMOSE in the Gulf of Gabes (OSMOSE-GoG). This model aims to capture the main processes that influence species life cycle and simulate the functioning of the ecosystem according to opportunistic predation process based on size selection and spatio-temporal co-occurrence between a predator and its prey. The spatial distribution of the eleven modelled species was derived from a Multi-Scale Species Distribution Modelling approach. We calibrated OSMOSE-GoG model with available data of biomass and fishing yield, using an optimization method based on evolutionary algorithms which is suitable for complex and stochastic models. Finally, OSMOSE-GoG was validated against independent data sets at different hierarchical levels: the individual (diet composition), population (mean size of commercial catch) and community levels (mean trophic level) following the Pattern-Oriented Modelling approach. The model outputs were overall consistent with the diet compositions and mean trophic levels derived from the ECOPATH model of the Gulf of Gabes (ECOPATH-GoG) and the observations of mean size of catches. The OSMOSE-GoG can be considered as a baseline model to investigate ecosystem responses to environmental changes and fishing management measures in the Gulf of Gabes.

Résumé: Understanding how external pressures impact ecosystem structure and functioning is essential for ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management. We quantified the relative effects of fisheries exploitation and environmental conditions on ecological indicators derived from two different data sources, fisheries catch data (catch-based) and fisheries independent survey data (survey-based) for 12 marine ecosystems using a partial least squares path modeling approach (PLS-PM). We linked these ecological indicators to the total biomass of the ecosystem. Although the effects of exploitation and environmental conditions differed across the ecosystems, some general results can be drawn from the comparative approach. Interestingly, the PLS-PM analyses showed that survey-based indicators were less tightly associated with each other than the catch-based ones. The analyses also showed that the effects of environmental conditions on the ecological indicators were predominantly significant, and tended to be negative, suggesting that in the recent period, indicators accounted for changes in environmental conditions and the changes were more likely to be adverse. Total biomass was associated with fisheries exploitation and environmental conditions; however its association with the ecological indicators was weak across the ecosystems. Knowledge of the relative influence of exploitation and environmental pressures on the dynamics within exploited ecosystems will help us to move towards ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management. PLS-PM proved to be a useful approach to quantify the relative effects of fisheries exploitation and environmental conditions and suggest it could be used more widely in fisheries oceanography.

Résumé: Fisheries provide critical provisioning services, especially given increasing human population. Understanding where marine communities are declining provides an indication of ecosystems of concern and highlights potential conflicts between seafood provisioning from wild fisheries and other ecosystem services. Here we use the nonparametric statistic, Kendall׳s tau, to assess trends in biomass of exploited marine species across a range of ecosystems. The proportion of ‘Non-Declining Exploited Species’ (NDES) is compared among ecosystems and to three community-level indicators that provide a gauge of the ability of a marine ecosystem to function both in provisioning and as a regulating service: survey-based mean trophic level, proportion of predatory fish, and mean life span. In some ecosystems, NDES corresponds to states and temporal trajectories of the community indicators, indicating deteriorating conditions in both the exploited community and in the overall community. However differences illustrate the necessity of using multiple ecological indicators to reflect the state of the ecosystem. For each ecosystem, we discuss patterns in NDES with respect to the community-level indicators and present results in the context of ecosystem-specific drivers. We conclude that using NDES requires context-specific supporting information in order to provide guidance within a management framework.

Résumé: ABSTRACT: Trophic level (TL)-based indicators have been widely used to examine fishing impacts in aquatic ecosystems and the induced biodiversity changes. However, much debate has ensued regarding discrepancies and challenges arising from the use of landings data from commercial fisheries to calculate TL indicators. Subsequent studies have started to examine survey-based and model-based indicators. In this paper, we undertake an extensive evaluation of a variety of TL indicators across 9 well-studied marine ecosystems by making use of model- as well as survey- and catch-based TL indicators. Using detailed regional information and data on fishing history, fishing intensity, and environmental conditions, we evaluate how well TL indicators are capturing fishing effects at the community level of marine ecosystems. Our results highlight that the differences observed between TL indicator values and trends is dependent on the data source and the TL cut-off point used in the calculations and is not attributable to an intrinsic problem with TL-based indicators. All 3 data sources provide useful information about the structural changes in the ecosystem as a result of fishing, but our results indicate that only model-based indicators represent fishing impacts at the whole ecosystem level.

Résumé: The effects of climate and fishing on marine ecosystems have usually been studied separately, but their interactions make ecosystem dynamics difficult to understand and predict. Of particular interest to management, the potential synergism or antagonism between fishing pressure and climate forcing is analysed in this paper, using an end-to-end ecosystem model of the southern Benguela ecosystem, built from coupling hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and multispecies fish models (ROMS-N(2)P(2)Z(2)D(2)-OSMOSE). Scenarios of different intensities of upwelling-favourable wind stress combined with scenarios of fishing top-predator fish were tested. Analyses of isolated drivers show that the bottom-up effect of the climate forcing propagates up the food chain whereas the top-down effect of fishing cascades down to zooplankton in unfavourable environmental conditions but dampens before it reaches phytoplankton. When considering both climate and fishing drivers together, it appears that top-down control dominates the link between top-predator fish and forage fish, whereas interactions between the lower trophic levels are dominated by bottom-up control. The forage fish functional group appears to be a central component of this ecosystem, being the meeting point of two opposite trophic controls. The set of combined scenarios shows that fishing pressure and upwelling-favourable wind stress have mostly dampened effects on fish populations, compared to predictions from the separate effects of the stressors. Dampened effects result in biomass accumulation at the top predator fish level but a depletion of biomass at the forage fish level. This should draw our attention to the evolution of this functional group, which appears as both structurally important in the trophic functioning of the ecosystem, and very sensitive to climate and fishing pressures. In particular, diagnoses considering fishing pressure only might be more optimistic than those that consider combined effects of fishing and environmental variability.

Résumé: We show that the EcoTroph model based on trophic spectra is an efficient tool to build ecosystem diagnoses of the impact of fishing. Using the Southern Benguela case study as a pretext, we present the first thorough application of the model to a real ecosystem. We thus review the structure and functioning of EcoTroph and we introduce the user to the steps that should be followed, showing the various possibilities of the model while underlining the most critical points of the modelling process. We show that EcoTroph provides an overview of the current exploitation level and target factors at the ecosystem scale, using two distinct trophic spectra to quantify the fishing targets and the fishing impact per trophic level. Then, we simulate changes in the fishing mortality, facilitating differential responses of two groups of species within the Southern Benguela ecosystem to be distinguished. More generally, we highlight various trends in a number of indicators of the ecosystem's state when increasing fishing mortality and we show that this ecosystem is moderately exploited, although predatory species are at their MSY. Finally, trophic spectra of the fishing effort multipliers EMSY and E(0.1) are proposed as tools for monitoring the ecosystem effects of fishing.

Résumé: Marine ecosystems have been exploited for a long time, growing increasingly vulnerable to collapse and irreversible change. How do we know when an ecosystem may be in danger? A measure of the status of individual stocks is only a partial gauge of its status, and does not include changes at the broader ecosystem level, to non-commercial species or to its structure or functioning. Six ecosystem indicators measuring trends over time were collated for 19 ecosystems, corresponding to four ecological attributes: resource potential, ecosystem structure and functioning, conservation of functional biodiversity, and ecosystem stability and resistance to perturbations. We explored the use of a decision-tree approach, a definition of initial ecosystem state (impacted or non-impacted), and the trends in the ecosystem indicators to classify the ecosystems into improving, stationary, and deteriorating. Ecosystem experts classified all ecosystems as impacted at the time of their initial state. Of these, 15 were diagnosed as “ugly”, because they had deteriorated from an already impacted state. Several also exhibited specific combinations of trends indicating “fishing down the foodweb”, reduction in size structure, reduction in diversity and stability, and changed productivity. The classification provides an initial evaluation for scientists, resource managers, stakeholders, and the general public of the concerning status of ecosystems globally.

Résumé: Background is provided to the selection of ecological indicators by the IndiSeas Working Group, and the methodology adopted for analysis and comparison of indicators across exploited marine ecosystems is documented. The selected indicators are presented, how they are calculated is explained, and the philosophy behind the comparative approach is given. The combination of selected indicators is intended to reflect different dynamics, tracking processes that display differential responses to fishing, and is meant to provide a complementary means of assessing marine ecosystem trends and states. IndiSeas relied on inputs and insights provided by the local experts from participating ecosystems, helping to understand state and trend indicators and to disentangle the effect of other potential ecosystem drivers, such as climate variability. This project showed that the use of simple and available indicators under an ecosystem approach can achieve a real, wide-reaching evaluation of marine ecosystem status caused by fishing. This is important because the socio-economics of areas where fishing activities develop differs significantly around the globe, and in many countries, insufficient data are available for complex and exhaustive analyses.

Résumé: The usefulness of indicators in detecting ecosystem change depends on three main criteria: the availability of data to estimate the indicator (measurability), the ability to detect change in an ecosystem (sensitivity), and the ability to link the said change in an indicator as a response to a known intervention or pressure (specificity). Here, we specifically examine the third aspect of indicator change, with an emphasis on multiple methods to explore the “relativity” of major ecosystem drivers. We use a suite of multivariate methods to explore the relationships between a pre-established set of fisheries-orientated ecosystem status indicators and the key drivers for those ecosystems (particularly emphasizing proxy indicators for fishing and the environment). The results show the relative importance among fishing and environmental factors, which differed notably across the major types of ecosystems. Yet, they also demonstrated common patterns in which most ecosystems, and indicators of ecosystem dynamics are largely driven by fisheries (landings) or human (human development index) factors, and secondarily by environmental drivers (e.g. AMO, PDO, SST). How one might utilize this empirical evidence in future efforts for ecosystem approaches to fisheries is discussed, highlighting the need to manage fisheries in the context of environmental and other human (e.g. economic) drivers.

Résumé: Shannon, L. J., Coll, M., Yemane, D., Jouffre, D., Neira, S., Bertrand, A., Diaz, E., and Shin, Y-J. 2010. Comparing data-based indicators across upwelling and comparable systems for communicating ecosystem states and trends. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 807-832.

Résumé: Within the IndiSeas WG, the evaluation of exploited marine ecosystems has several steps, from simple binary categorization of ecosystems to a more-complex attempt to rank them and to evaluate their status using decision-tree analyses. With the intention of communicating scientific knowledge to the public and stakeholders, focus is on evaluating and comparing the status of exploited marine ecosystems using a set of six ecological indicators and a simple and transparent graphic representation of ecosystem state (pie charts). A question that arose was whether it was acceptable to compare different types of marine ecosystems using a generic set of indicators. To this end, an attempt is made to provide reference levels to which ecosystems can be objectively compared. Unacceptable thresholds for each indicator are determined based on ecological expertise derived from a questionnaire distributed to a group of scientific experts. Analysis of the questionnaires revealed no significant difference in the thresholds provided for different ecosystem types, suggesting that it was reasonable to compare states directly across different types of ecosystem using the set of indicators selected.

Résumé: Existing models of marine ecosystems address specific issues related to the bottom-up forcing of production or to the top-down effects of fishing on a limited range of the trophic spectrum. Very few existing models explicitly incorporate the dynamics from one end of the ecosystem to the other and thus allowing the exploration of interplay between exploitation and climate effects. The shift to an ecosystem approach to fisheries and concerns about the ecological effects of climate change require the assemblage of knowledge assembled from the respective marine disciplines with the view to build end-to-end models of marine ecosystems. Here, with a focus on plankton and fish models, we present some issues and recommendations for the integration of models between trophic levels (vertical integration) and within functional groups (horizontal integration within trophic levels). At present, vertical coupling of plankton and fish models is mainly realized through predation processes, generally represented as a functional response. In the absence of empirical evidence and quantification, the choice of the functional response term is often made by default, and is reduced to a parameterization problem. A strategy is proposed to overcome this arbitrary choice. In addition to the vertical coupling of trophic models, the structure of end-to-end models incorporates biodiversity via horizontal integration of trophic levels. For guiding the selection of key components to be included in end-to-end models, the idea that marine food webs are structured as alternative trophic pathways is highlighted and related to observed dynamics. We suggest that an important early step in model development is the identification of major trophic pathways and bottlenecks in an ecosystem using a historical perspective.

Résumé: Ecosystem models provide a platform allowing exploration into the possible responses of marine food webs to fishing pressure and various potential management decisions. In this study we investigate the particular effects of overfishing on the structure and function of the southern Benguela food web, using two models with different underlying assumptions: the spatialized, size-based individual-based model, OSMOSE, and the trophic mass-balance model, Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE). Starting from the same reference state of the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem during the 1990s, we compare the response of the food web to scenarios of overfishing using these two modelling approaches. A scenario of increased fishing mortality is applied to two distinct functional groups: i) two species of Cape hake, representing important target predatory fish, and ii) the forage species anchovy, sardine and redeye. In these simulations, fishing mortality on the selected functional groups is doubled for 10 years, followed by 10 years at the initial fishing mortality. We compare the food web states before the increase of fishing mortality, after 10 years of overfishing and after a further 10 years during which fishing was returned to initial levels. In order to compare the simulated food web structures with the reference state, and between the two modelling approaches, we use a set of trophic indicators: the mean trophic level of the community and in catches, the trophic pyramid (biomass per discrete trophic level), and the predatory/forage fish biomass ratio. OSMOSE and EwE present globally similar results for the trophic functioning of the ecosystem under fishing pressure: the biomass of targeted species decreases whereas that of their potential competitors increases. The reaction of distant species is more diverse, depending on the feeding links between the compartments. The mean trophic level of the community does not vary enough to be used for assessing ecosystem impacts of fishing, and the mean trophic level in the catch displays a surprising increase due to the short period of overfishing. The trophic pyramids behave in an unexpected way compared to trophic control theory. because at least two food chains with different dynamics are intertwined within the food web. We emphasize the importance of biomass information at the species level for interpreting dynamics in aggregated indicators, and we highlight the importance of competitive groups when looking at ecosystem functioning under fishing disturbance. Finally, we discuss the results within the scope of differences between models, in terms of the way they are formulated, spatial dimensions, predation formulations and the representation of fish life cycles.

Résumé: The main principle of the economic approach to a trophic system we propose here lies in assuming that there is a transfer of food along a path between a prey and a predator if, for the predator, the benefits are greater than costs of predation on this path. Conversely, if the costs exceed the benefits, there are no flows. This trade-off, considered all along the food chains of an ecosystem, together with ecological processes (assimilation, somatic maintenance) results in a model coupling mass balance equations (biological constraints) and complementarity principles (Walras’ law). Here is the core of the Network Economics Approach to Trophic Systems (NEATS). We illustrate with simple examples of ecosystems how these principles result in algebraic equations which can be analyzed mathematically and solved numerically.We show, in amore sophisticated example of an input/output trophic network, that they result in “affine variational inequalities”, whose solutions can be estimated. We make explicit how the approach can be applied to address ecological questions, concerning differences of productivity, causes of biological diversity, or the nature of controls in marine ecosystems.
© 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Résumé: Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have been suggested as a tool that can achieve some of the goals of an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF), e.g. prevention of overexploitation, biodiversity conservation, recovery of overexploited population, but the consequences of their establishment on the dynamics of protected components are often unclear. Spatial and multispecies models can be used to investigate the effects of their introduction. An individual-based, spatially explicit, size-structured, multispecies model (known as OSMOSE) is used to investigate the likely consequences of the introduction of three MPAs off the coast of South Africa, individually or in combination. The simultaneous introduction of the MPAs affected varying proportions of the distribution of the modelled species (5-17%) and 12% of the distribution of the whole community. In general, the introduction of the MPAs in the different scenarios resulted in a relative increase in the biomass of large predatory fish and a decrease in the biomass of small pelagic fish. The simulation demonstrates that consideration of trophic interactions is necessary when introducing MPAs, with indirect effects that may be detrimental to some (mainly smaller prey) species.