Résumé: Ensemble niche modelling has become a common framework to predict changes in assemblages composition under climate change scenarios. The amount of uncertainty generated by the different components of this framework has rarely been assessed. In the marine realm forecasts have usually focused on taxa representing the top of the marine food-web, thus overlooking their basal component: the plankton. Calibrating environmental niche models at the global scale, we modelled the habitat suitability of 106 copepod species and estimated the dissimilarity between present and future zooplanktonic assemblages in the surface Mediterranean Sea. We identified the patterns (species replacement versus nestedness) driving the predicted dissimilarity, and quantified the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources: environmental niche models, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, circulation model configurations and species prevalence. Our results confirm that the choice of the niche modelling method is the greatest source of uncertainty in habitat suitability projections. Presence-only and presence-absence methods provided different visions of the niches, which subsequently lead to different future scenarios of biodiversity changes. Nestedness with decline in species richness is the pattern driving dissimilarity between present and future copepod assemblages. Our projections contrast with those reported for higher trophic levels, suggesting that different components of the pelagic food-web may respond discordantly to future climatic changes.

Résumé: High juvenile mortality rates are typical of many long-lived marine vertebrate predators. Insufficient development in dive and forage ability is considered a key driver of this. However, direct links to survival outcome are sparse, particularly in free-ranging marine animals that may not return to land. In this study, we conduct exploratory investigations toward early mortality in juvenile southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina. Twenty postweaning pups were equipped with (a) a new-generation satellite relay data tag, capable of remotely transmitting fine-scale behavioral movements from accelerometers, and (b) a location transmitting only tag (so that mortality events could be distinguished from device failures). Individuals were followed during their first trip at sea (until mortality or return to land). Two analyses were conducted. First, the behavioral movements and encountered environmental conditions of nonsurviving pups were individually compared to temporally concurrent observations from grouped survivors. Second, common causes of mortality were investigated using Cox's proportional hazard regression and penalized shrinkage techniques. Nine individuals died (two females and seven males) and 11 survived (eight females and three males). All but one individual died before the return phase of their first trip at sea, and all but one were negatively buoyant. Causes of death were variable, although common factors included increased horizontal travel speeds and distances, decreased development in dive and forage ability, and habitat type visited (lower sea surface temperatures and decreased total [eddy] kinetic energy). For long-lived marine vertebrate predators, such as the southern elephant seal, the first few months of life following independence represent a critical period, when small deviations in behavior from the norm appear sufficient to increase mortality risk. Survival rates may subsequently be particularly vulnerable to changes in climate and environment, which will have concomitant consequences on the demography and dynamics of populations.

Résumé: Since 2008, juvenile Crassostrea gigas oysters have suffered from massive mortalities in European farming areas. This disease of complex etiology is still incompletely understood. Triggered by an elevated seawater temperature, it has been associated to infections by a herpes virus named OsHV-1 as well as pathogenic vibrios of the Splendidus clade. Ruling out the complexity of the disease, most of our current knowledge has been acquired in controlled experiments. Among the many unsolved questions, it is still ignored what role immunity plays in the capacity oysters have to survive an infectious episode. Here we show that juvenile oysters susceptible to the disease mount an inefficient immune response associated with microbial permissiveness and death. We found that, in contrast to resistant adult oysters having survived an earlier episode of mortality, susceptible juvenile oysters never exposed to infectious episodes died by more than 90% in a field experiment. Susceptible oysters were heavily colonized by OsHV-1 herpes virus as well as bacteria including vibrios potentially pathogenic for oysters, which proliferated in oyster flesh and body fluids during the mortality event. Nonetheless, susceptible oysters were found to sense microbes as indicated by an overexpression of immune receptors and immune signaling pathways. However, they did not express important immune effectors involved in antimicrobial immunity and apoptosis and showed repressed expression of genes involved in ROS and metal homeostasis. This contrasted with resistant oysters, which expressed those important effectors, controlled bacterial and viral colonization and showed 100% survival to the mortality event. Altogether, our results demonstrate that the immune response mounted by susceptible oysters lacks some important immune functions and fails in controlling microbial proliferation. This study opens the way to more holistic studies on the “mass mortality syndrome”, which are now required to decipher the sequence of events leading to oyster mortalities and determine the relative weight of pathogens, oyster genetics and oyster-associated microbiota in the disease.