Résumé: Evidence has accumulated that climate variability influences the state and functioning of marine ecosystems. At the same time increasing pressure from exploitation and other human activities has been shown to impact exploited and non-exploited species and potentially modify ecosystem structure. There has been a tendency among marine scientists to pose the question as a dichotomy, i.e., whether (1) “natural” climate variability or (2) fishery exploitation bears the primary responsibility for population declines in fish populations and the associated ecosystem changes. However, effects of both climate and exploitation are probably substantially involved in most cases. More importantly, climate and exploitation interact in their effects, such that climate may cause failure in a fishery management scheme but that fishery exploitation may also disrupt the ability of a resource population to withstand, or adjust to, climate changes. Here, we review how exploitation, by altering the structure of populations and ecosystems, can modify their ability to respond to climate. The demographic effects of fishing (removal of large-old individuals) can have substantial consequences on the capacity of populations to buffer climate variability through various pathways (direct demographic effects, effects on migration, parental effects). In a similar way, selection of population sub-units within metapopulations may also lead to a reduction in the capacity of populations to withstand climate variability and change. At the ecosystem level, reduced complexity by elimination of species, such as might occur by fishing, may be destabilizing and could lead to reduced resilience to perturbations. Differential exploitation of marine resources could also promote increased turnover rates in marine ecosystems, which would exacerbate the effects of environmental changes. Overall (and despite the specificities of local situations) reduction in marine diversity at the individual, population and ecosystem levels will likely lead to a reduction in the resilience and an increase in the response of populations and ecosystems to future climate variability and change. Future management schemes will have to consider the structure and functioning of populations and ecosystems in a wider sense in order to maximise the ability of marine fauna to adapt to future climates. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Résumé: The impact of anthropogenic activity on ecosystems has highlighted the need to move beyond the biogeographical delineation of species richness patterns to understanding the vulnerability of species assemblages, including the functional components that are linked to the processes they support. We developed a decision theory framework to quantitatively assess the global taxonomic and functional vulnerability of fish assemblages on tropical reefs using a combination of sensitivity to species loss, exposure to threats and extent of protection. Fish assemblages with high taxonomic and functional sensitivity are often exposed to threats but are largely missed by the global network of marine protected areas. We found that areas of high species richness spatially mismatch areas of high taxonomic and functional vulnerability. Nevertheless, there is strong spatial match between taxonomic and functional vulnerabilities suggesting a potential win-win conservation-ecosystem service strategy if more protection is set in these locations.

Résumé: In the marine realm, the tropics host an extraordinary diversity of taxa but the drivers underlying the global distribution of marine organisms are still under scrutiny and we still lack an accurate global predictive model. Using a spatial database for 6336 tropical reef fishes, we attempted to predict species richness according to geometric, biogeographical and environmental explanatory variables. In particular, we aimed to evaluate and disentangle the predictive performances of temperature, habitat area, connectivity, mid-domain effect and biogeographical region on reef fish species richness. We used boosted regression trees, a flexible machine-learning technique, to build our predictive model and structural equation modeling to test for potential mediation effects' among predictors. Our model proved to be accurate, explaining 80% of the total deviance in fish richness using a cross-validated procedure. Coral reef area and biogeographical region were the primary predictors of reef fish species richness, followed by coast length, connectivity, mid-domain effect and sea surface temperature, with interactions between the region and other predictors. Important indirect effects of water temperature on reef fish richness, mediated by coral reef area, were also identified. The relationship between environmental predictors and species richness varied markedly among biogeographical regions. Our analysis revealed that a few easily accessible variables can accurately predict reef fish species richness. They also highlight concerns regarding ongoing environmental declines, with region-specific responses to variation in environmental conditions predicting a variable response to anthropogenic impacts.