Résumé: Aim To assess the impact of climate change on the functional diversity of marine zooplankton communities. Location The Mediterranean Sea. Methods We used the functional traits and geographic distributions of 106 copepod species to estimate the zooplankton functional diversity of Mediterranean surface assemblages for the 1965-1994 and 2069-2098 periods. Multiple environmental niche models were trained at the global scale to project the species habitat suitability in the Mediterranean Sea and assess their sensitivity to climate change predicted by several scenarios. Simultaneously, the species traits were used to compute a functional dendrogram from which we identified seven functional groups and estimated functional diversity through Faith's index. We compared the measured functional diversity to the one originated from null models to test if changes in functional diversity were solely driven by changes in species richness. Results All but three of the 106 species presented range contractions of varying intensity. A relatively low decrease of species richness (-7.42 on average) is predicted for 97% of the basin, with higher losses in the eastern regions. Relative sensitivity to climate change is not clustered in functional space and does not significantly vary across the seven copepod functional groups defined. Changes in functional diversity follow the same pattern and are not different from those that can be expected from changes in richness alone. Main conclusions Climate change is not expected to alter copepod functional traits distribution in the Mediterranean Sea, as the most and the least sensitive species are functionally redundant. Such redundancy should buffer the loss of ecosystem functions in Mediterranean zooplankton assemblages induced by climate change. Because the most negatively impacted species are affiliated to temperate regimes and share Atlantic biogeographic origins, our results are in line with the hypothesis of increasingly more tropical Mediterranean communities.

Résumé: AimConservation priorities need to take the feasibility of protection measures into account. In times of economic pressure it is essential to identify the low-hanging fruit' for conservation: areas where human impacts are lower and biological diversity is still high, and thus conservation is more feasible. LocationWe used the Mediterranean large marine ecosystem (LME) as a case study to identify the overlapping areas of low threats and high diversity of vertebrate species at risk. MethodsThis LME is the first in the world to have a complete regional IUCN Red List assessment of the native marine fish. We augmented these data with distributions of marine mammals, marine turtles and seabirds at risk, and we calculated the spatial distributions of species at risk (IUCN densities). Using cumulative threats we identified priority areas for conservation of species at risk' (PACS), where IUCN diversities are high and threats are low. We assessed whether IUCN diversities and PACS were spatially congruent among taxa and we quantified whether PACS corresponded to current and proposed protected areas. ResultsIUCN densities and PACS were not highly correlated spatially among taxa. Continental shelves and deep-sea slopes of the Alboran Sea, western Mediterranean and Tunisian Plateau/Gulf of Sidra are identified as relevant for fish species at risk. The eastern side of the western Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea are identified as most relevant for endemic fish, and shelf and open sea areas distributed through the LME are most important for marine mammals and turtles at risk, while specific locations of the western Mediterranean Sea and the Aegean and Levantine seas are highlighted for seabirds. Main conclusionsLarge parts of the areas of PACS fell outside current or proposed frameworks to be prioritized for conservation. PACS may be suitable candidates for contributing to the 10% protection target for the Mediterranean Sea by 2020.

Résumé: The role of speciation processes in shaping current biodiversity patterns represents a major scientific question for ecologists and biogeographers. Hence, numerous methods have been developed to determine the geography of speciation based on co-occurrence between sister-species. Most of these methods rely on the correlation between divergence time and several metrics based on the geographic ranges of sister-taxa (i.e. overlap, asymmetry). The relationship between divergence time and these metrics has scarcely been examined in a spatial context beyond regression curves. Mapping this relationship across spatial grids, however, may unravel how speciation processes have shaped current biodiversity patterns through space and time. This can be particularly relevant for coral reef fishes of the Indo-Pacific since the origin of the exceptional concentration of biodiversity in the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) has been actively debated, with several alternative hypotheses involving species diversification and dispersal. We reconstructed the phylogenetic relationships between three species-rich families of coral reef fish (Chaetodontidae, Labridae, Pomacentridae) and calculated co-occurrence metrics between closely related lineages of those families. We demonstrated that repeated biogeographic processes can be identified in present-day species distribution by projecting co-occurrence metrics between related lineages in a geographical context. Our study also evidence that sister-species do not co-occur randomly across the Indo-Pacific, but tend to overlap their range within the IAA. We identified the imprint of two important biogeographic processes that caused this pattern in 48% of the sister-taxa considered: speciation events within the IAA and repeated divergence between the Indian and Pacific Ocean, with subsequent secondary contact in the IAA.