Résumé: While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Résumé: The negative impacts that scientific monitoring may have on marine ecosystems has been a neglected topic, mainly on the basis that its magnitude is minor compared to commercial fisheries, even though this raises ethical and, in certain cases, conservation issues. We argue that ethical principles should lead us to reconsider marine wildlife resource monitoring such as the fish and shellfish trawl surveys providing the science-based evidence needed for fisheries management and assessment of how environmental change affects marine shelf communities worldwide. Recent scientific and technological progress has provided methods and tools which might now be harnessed to reduce the impact of marine monitoring. We review these alternative methods, consider modifications to current practices and identify areas requiring further research.

Résumé: In the highly productive Northern Humboldt Current System, 3 seabird species, the Guanay cormorant Phalacrocorax bougainvillii, the Peruvian booby Sula variegata and the Peruvian pelican Pelecanus thagus, commence breeding in austral spring, coinciding with the lowest availability of their prey, the Peruvian anchovy Engraulis ringens. This strategy ensures the matching of increased prey availability when young achieve independence in summer. This pattern was observed during the last decade when anchovy was abundant. However, over the last century, the abundance of anchovy has varied widely due to contrasting interdecadal regimes in oceanographic conditions and fishing activity. We hypothesized that these regime shifts affected the abundance and availability of prey and may have conditioned the breeding seasonality of seabirds. We examined the timing and magnitude of the onset of breeding using dynamic occupancy models and related these parameters to the seasonality of oceanographic conditions, abundance of anchovy and fishing pressure. During a regime of lower anchovy abundance (1977-1990), cormorants showed the highest flexibility, adjusting the timing of breeding from spring to winter and skipping reproduction in the worst conditions. Boobies showed the lowest flexibility, maintaining the same magnitude and timing of onset of breeding in spring. Pelicans showed intermediate flexibility, foregoing breeding during the worst conditions, but maintaining the onset of breeding in spring. The 3 species used sea surface temperature as a cue for the initiation of breeding. Furthermore, given their better diving abilities, cormorants could monitor prey availability changes associated with the reversion in the seasonality of the oxycline depth.

Résumé: Marine reserves are viewed as flagship tools to protect exploited species and to contribute to the effective management of coastal fisheries. Yet, the extent to which marine reserves are globally interconnected and able to effectively seed areas, where fisheries are most critical for food and livelihood security is largely unknown. Using a hydrodynamic model of larval dispersal, we predict that most marine reserves are not interconnected by currents and that their potential benefits to fishing areas are presently limited, since countries with high dependency on coastal fisheries receive very little larval supply from marine reserves. This global mismatch could be reversed, however, by placing new marine reserves in areas sufficiently remote to minimize social and economic costs but sufficiently connected through sea currents to seed the most exploited fisheries and endangered ecosystems.

Résumé: IndiSeas (“Indicators for the Seas”) is a collaborative international working group that was established in 2005 to evaluate the status of exploited marine ecosystems using a suite of indicators in a comparative framework. An initial shortlist of seven ecological indicators was selected to quantify the effects of fishing on the broader ecosystem using several criteria (i.e., ecological meaning, sensitivity to fishing, data availability, management objectives and public awareness). The suite comprised: (i) the inverse coefficient of variation of total biomass of surveyed species, (ii) mean fish length in the surveyed community, (iii) mean maximum life span of surveyed fish species, (iv) proportion of predatory fish in the surveyed community, (v) proportion of under and moderately exploited stocks, (vi) total biomass of surveyed species, and (vii) mean trophic level of the landed catch. In line with the Nagoya Strategic Plan of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2011–2020), we extended this suite to emphasize the broader biodiversity and conservation risks in exploited marine ecosystems. We selected a subset of indicators from a list of empirically based candidate biodiversity indicators initially established based on ecological significance to complement the original IndiSeas indicators. The additional selected indicators were: (viii) mean intrinsic vulnerability index of the fish landed catch, (ix) proportion of non-declining exploited species in the surveyed community, (x) catch-based marine trophic index, and (xi) mean trophic level of the surveyed community. Despite the lack of data in some ecosystems, we also selected (xii) mean trophic level of the modelled community, and (xiii) proportion of discards in the fishery as extra indicators. These additional indicators were examined, along with the initial set of IndiSeas ecological indicators, to evaluate whether adding new biodiversity indicators provided useful additional information to refine our understanding of the status evaluation of 29 exploited marine ecosystems. We used state and trend analyses, and we performed correlation, redundancy and multivariate tests. Existing developments in ecosystem-based fisheries management have largely focused on exploited species. Our study, using mostly fisheries independent survey-based indicators, highlights that biodiversity and conservation-based indicators are complementary to ecological indicators of fishing pressure. Thus, they should be used to provide additional information to evaluate the overall impact of fishing on exploited marine ecosystems.

Résumé: AimBiological invasions are major contributors to global change and native biodiversity decline. However, they are overlooked in marine conservation plans. Here, we examine for the first time the extent to which marine conservation planning research has addressed (or ignored) biological invasions. Furthermore, we explore the change of spatial priorities in conservation plans when different approaches are used to incorporate the presence and impacts of invasive species. LocationGlobal analysis with a focus on the Mediterranean Sea region. MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature review consisting of three steps: (1) article selection using a search engine, (2) abstract screening and (3) review of pertinent articles, which were identified in the second step. The information extracted included the scale and geographical location of each case study as well as the approach followed regarding invasive species. We also applied the software Marxan to produce and compare conservation plans for the Mediterranean Sea that either protect, or avoid areas impacted by invasives, or ignore the issue. One case study focused on the protection of critical habitats, and the other on endemic fish species. ResultsWe found that of 119 papers on marine spatial plans in specific biogeographic regions, only three (2.5%) explicitly took into account invasive species. When comparing the different conservation plans for each case study, we found that the majority of selected sites for protection (ca. 80%) changed in the critical habitat case study, while this proportion was lower but substantial (27%) in the endemic fish species case study. Main conclusionsBiological invasions are being widely disregarded when planning for conservation in the marine environment across local to global scales. More explicit consideration of biological invasions can significantly alter spatial conservation priorities. Future conservation plans should explicitly account for biological invasions to optimize the selection of marine protected areas.

Résumé: Understanding how marine predators interact is a scientific challenge. In marine ecosystems, segregation in feeding habits has been largely described as a common mechanism to allow the coexistence of several competing marine predators. However, little is known about the feeding ecology of most species of chondrichthyans, which play a pivotal role in the structure of marine food webs worldwide. In this study, we examined the trophic ecology of 3 relatively abundant chondrichthyans coexisting in the Mediterranean Sea: the blackmouth catshark Galeus melastomus, the velvet belly lanternshark Etmopterus spinax and the rabbit fish Chimaera monstrosa. To examine their trophic ecology and interspecific differences in food habits, we combined the analysis of stomach content and stable isotopes. Our results highlighted a trophic segregation between C. monstrosa and the other 2 species. G. melastomus showed a diet composed mainly of cephalopods, while E. spinax preyed mainly on shrimps and C. monstrosa on crabs. Interspecific differences in the trophic niche were likely due to different feeding capabilities and body size. Each species showed different isotopic niche space and trophic level. Specifically, C. monstrosa showed a higher trophic level than E. spinax and G. melastomus. The high trophic levels of the 3 species highlighted their important role as predators in the marine food web. Our results illustrate the utility of using complementary approaches that provide information about the feeding behaviour at short (stomach content) and long-term scales (stable isotopes), which could allow more efficient monitoring of marine food-web changes in the study area.

Résumé: We developed an ecological model to characterize the structure and functioning of the marine continental shelf and slope area of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, from Toulon to Cape La Nao (NWM model), in the early 2000s. The model included previously modeled areas in the NW Mediterranean (the Gulf of Lions and the Southern Catalan Sea) and expanded their ranges, covering 45,547 km2, with depths from 0 to 1000 m. The study area was chosen to specifically account for the connectivity between the areas and shared fish stocks and fleets. Input data were based on local scientific surveys and fishing statistics, published data on stomach content analyses, and the application of empirical equations to estimate consumption and production rates. The model was composed of 54 functional groups, from primary producers to top predators, and Spanish and French fishing fleets were considered. Results were analyzed using ecological indicators and compared with outputs from ecosystem models developed in the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of Cadiz prior to this study. Results showed that the main trophic flows were associated with detritus, phytoplankton, zooplankton and benthic invertebrates. Several high trophic level organisms (such as dolphins, benthopelagic cephalopods, large demersal fishes from the continental shelf, and other large pelagic fishes), and the herbivorous salema fish, were identified as keystone groups within the ecosystem. Results confirmed that fishing impact was high and widespread throughout the food web. The comparative approach highlighted that, despite productivity differences, the ecosystems shared common features in structure and functioning traits such as the important role of detritus, the dominance of the pelagic fraction in terms of flows and the importance of benthic–pelagic coupling.

Résumé: Bycatch of endangered marine turtles is a growing issue for the management of all fisheries, including the oceanic purse-seine fishery. The aim of this study was to assess the spatial and temporal variation in bycatch rates of these species in the entire European purse-seine fishery operating in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. The study was based on data collected through observer programs from 1995 to 2011. During that period, a total of 15 913 fishing sets were observed, including 6 515 on Drifting Fish Aggregating Devices (DFADs) and 9 398 on free swimming schools, representing a global coverage of 10.3% and 5.1% of the total fishing activity in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean, respectively. Moreover, from 2003 to 2011, 14 124 specific observations were carried out on DFADs to check turtle entanglement in the net covering DFADs. We found that the purse-seine fishery has a very low impact on marine turtles. We estimated that the annual number of individuals incidentally captured was 218 (SD = 150) and 250 (SD = 157) in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean, respectively, with more than 75% being released alive. The present study also investigated the impact of DFADs; which is considered a key conservation issue for this fishery. Drifting objects may play a key role in aggregating juveniles of marine turtles, implying the need for improving their construction to avoid entanglement (e.g. avoiding nets in the structure); however, based on our study it is not the main source of incidental captures of marine turtles in this fishery.

Résumé: Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.

Résumé: 1. Current global changes make it important to be able to predict which interactions will occur in the emerging ecosystems. Most of the current methods to infer the existence of interactions between two species require a good knowledge of their behaviour or a direct observation of interactions. In this paper, we overcome these limitations by developing a method, inspired from the niche model of food web structure, using the statistical relationship between predator and prey body size to infer the matrix of potential interactions among a pool of species. 2. The novelty of our approach is to infer, for any species of a given species pool, the three species-specific parameters of the niche model. The method applies to both local and metaweb scales. It allows one to evaluate the feeding interactions of a new species entering the community. 3. We find that this method gives robust predictions of the structure of food webs and that its efficiency is increased when the strength of the body-size relationship between predators and preys increases. 4. We finally illustrate the potential of the method to infer the metaweb structure of pelagic fishes of the Mediterranean sea under different global change scenarios.

Résumé: Shannon, L. J., Coll, M., Yemane, D., Jouffre, D., Neira, S., Bertrand, A., Diaz, E., and Shin, Y-J. 2010. Comparing data-based indicators across upwelling and comparable systems for communicating ecosystem states and trends. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 807-832.