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Andrello, M., Mouillot, D., Somot, S., Thuiller, W., & Manel, S. (2015). Additive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas. Diversity Distrib., 21(2), 139–150.
Résumé: Aim To study the combined effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas (MPAs) and larval supply to the continental shelf. Location The Mediterranean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are expected to strongly increase by the end of the 21st century, represents an archetypal situation with a dense MPA network but resource overexploitation outside. Methods Using an individual-based mechanistic model of larval transport, forced with an emission-driven regional climate change scenario for the Mediterranean Sea, we explored the combined effects of changes in hydrodynamics, adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on the connectivity among MPAs and their ability to seed fished areas with larvae. Results We show that, over the period 1970–2099, larval dispersal distances would decrease by 10%, the continental shelf area seeded with larvae would decrease by 3% and the larval retention fraction would increase by 5%, resulting in higher concentration of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf. However, connectance within the MPA network would increase by 5% as more northern MPAs would become suitable for reproduction with increasing temperatures. We also show that the effects of changes in adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on connectivity patterns are additive. Main conclusions Climate change will influence connectivity and the effectiveness of MPA networks, and should receive more attention in future conservation planning and large-scale population dynamics.
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Cuif, M., Kaplan, D. M., Lefèvre, J., Faure, V. M., Caillaud, M., Verley, P., et al. (2014). Wind-induced variability in larval retention in a coral reef system: a biophysical modelling study in the South-West Lagoon of New Caledonia. Progress in Oceanography, 122, 105–115.
Résumé: In the present work, a biophysical dispersal model is used to understand the role of the physical environment in determining reef fish larval dispersal patterns in the South-West Lagoon of New Caledonia. We focus on a reef fish species, the humbug damselfish Dascyllus aruanus, to investigate seasonal variability of simulated larval retention at the scale of a reef patch and at the scale of the lagoon, and to explore links between larval retention and wind variability. The model shows that retention exhibits considerable temporal variability and periodically reaches values much larger than anticipated. Non-zero larval settlement occurs over a large part of the lagoon. Nevertheless, settlement values decrease quickly away from the natal reef and mean dispersal distances are of order 25-35 km. Cross-correlation analyses indicate that weather conditions characterized by strong south east trade winds lead to low retention rates at both local (reef) and regional (lagoon) scales. By contrast, subtropical weather conditions characterized by weak winds result in high retention rates. These results suggest that large-scale weather regimes can be used as proxies for larval retention of the humbug damselfish in the South-West Lagoon of New Caledonia. Nevertheless, relatively small mean dispersal distances suggest that meta-population dynamics occur on relatively small spatial scales.
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Dubois, M., Rossi, V., Ser-Giacomi, E., Arnaud-Haond, S., Lopez, C., & Hernandez-Garcia, E. (2016). Linking basin-scale connectivity, oceanography and population dynamics for the conservation and management of marine ecosystems. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 25(5), 503–515.
Résumé: AimAssessing the spatial structure and dynamics of marine populations is still a major challenge in ecology. The need to manage marine resources from ecosystem and large-scale perspectives is recognized, but our partial understanding of oceanic connectivity limits the implementation of globally pertinent conservation planning. Based on a biophysical model for the entire Mediterranean Sea, this study takes an ecosystem approach to connectivity and provides a systematic characterization of broad-scale larval dispersal patterns. It builds on our knowledge of population dynamics and discusses the ecological and management implications. LocationThe semi-enclosed Mediterranean Sea and its marine ecosystems are used as a case study to investigate broad-scale connectivity patterns and to relate them to oceanography and population dynamics. MethodsA flow network is constructed by evenly subdividing the basin into sub-regions which are interconnected through the transport of larvae by ocean currents. It allows for the computation of various connectivity metrics required to evaluate larval retention and exchange. ResultsOur basin-scale model predicts that retention processes are weak in the open ocean while they are significant in the coastal ocean and are favoured along certain coastlines due to specific oceanographic features. Moreover, we show that wind-driven divergent (convergent, respectively) oceanic regions are systematically characterized by larval sources (sinks, respectively). Finally, although these connectivity metrics have often been studied separately in the literature, we demonstrate they are interrelated under particular conditions. Their integrated analysis facilitates the appraisal of population dynamics, informing both genetic and demographic connectivities. Main conclusionsThis modelling framework helps ecologists and geneticists to formulate improved hypotheses of population structures and gene flow patterns and to design their sampling strategy accordingly. It is also useful in the implementation and assessment of future protection strategies, such as coastal and offshore marine reserves, by accounting for large-scale dispersal patterns, a missing component of current ecosystem management.
Mots-Clés: coral-reef fish; dispersal; genetic-structure; Larval dispersal; local retention; local retention; marine connectivity; marine ecosystems; marine protected areas; mediterranean littoral fishes; Mediterranean Sea; metapopulation; pelagic larval duration; population dynamics; Population Genetics; protected-area design; sea; self-recruitment; sink dynamics; source
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Kaplan, D. M., Cuif, M., Fauvelot, C., Vigliola, L., Nguyen-Huu, T., Tiavouane, J., et al. (2017). Uncertainty in empirical estimates of marine larval connectivity. ICES J. Mar. Sci., 74(6), 1723–1734.
Résumé: Despite major advances in our capacity to measure marine larval connectivity (i.e. the pattern of transport of marine larvae from spawning to settlement sites) and the importance of these measurements for ecological and management questions, uncertainty in experimental estimates of marine larval connectivity has been given little attention. We review potential uncertainty sources in empirical larval connectivity studies and develop Bayesian statistical methods for estimating these uncertainties based on standard techniques in the mark-recapture and genetics literature. These methods are implemented in an existing R package for working with connectivity data, ConnMatTools, and applied to a number of published connectivity estimates. We find that the small sample size of collected settlers at destination sites is a dominant source of uncertainty in connectivity estimates in many published results. For example, widths of 95% CIs for relative connectivity, the value of which is necessarily between 0 and 1, exceeded 0.5 for many published connectivity results, complicating using individual results to conclude that marine populations are relatively closed or open. This “small sample size” uncertainty is significant even for studies with near-exhaustive sampling of spawners and settlers. Though largely ignored in the literature, the magnitude of this uncertainty is straightforward to assess. Better accountability of this and other uncertainties is needed in the future so that marine larval connectivity studies can fulfill their promises of providing important ecological insights and informing management questions (e.g. related to marine protected area network design, and stock structure of exploited organisms). In addition to using the statistical methods developed here, future studies should consistently evaluate and report a small number of critical factors, such as the exhaustivity of spawner and settler sampling, and the mating structure of target species in genetic studies.
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Magris, R. A., Andrello, M., Pressey, R. L., Mouillot, D., Dalongeville, A., Jacobi, M. N., et al. (2018). Biologically representative and well-connected marine reserves enhance biodiversity persistence in conservation planning. Conserv. Lett., 11(4), Unsp-e12439.
Résumé: Current methods in conservation planning for promoting the persistence of biodiversity typically focus on either representing species geographic distributions or maintaining connectivity between reserves, but rarely both, and take a focal species, rather than a multispecies, approach. Here, we link prioritization methods with population models to explore the impact of integrating both representation and connectivity into conservation planning for species persistence. Using data on 288 Mediterranean fish species with varying conservation requirements, we show that: (1) considering both representation and connectivity objectives provides the best strategy for enhanced biodiversity persistence and (2) connectivity objectives were fundamental to enhancing persistence of small-ranged species, which are most in need of conservation, while the representation objective benefited only wide-ranging species. Our approach provides a more comprehensive appraisal of planning applications than approaches focusing on either representation or connectivity, and will hopefully contribute to build more effective reserve networks for the persistence of biodiversity.
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