Résumé: Marine protected areas (MPAs) have the potential to enhance the long-term sustainability of coastal resources, and the artisanal fisheries which depend on them. However, recreational fisheries, which are increasing their impacts on coastal resources worldwide, may reduce the benefits that MPAs provide to declining artisanal fisheries. Here we used the Bonifacio Straits Natural Reserve (BSNR) Corsica as a study case to simulate the combined effects on coastal resources of artisanal and recreational fishing efforts. The BSNR ecosystem was modelled using mass-balance modelling of trophic interactions. This model was compared to another built on a non-protected area from the same region. We aggregated fishing fleets into artisanal and recreational categories, and we simulated various combinations of fishing effort over a 20 yr dynamic simulation using Ecosim. We showed that fishing activities have an additional top-down effect on the food web and that they decrease the targeted group's biomass, such as piscivorous species. We found, for some trophic groups, non-trivial patterns of biomass variation through trophic cascades. Our trophic approach revealed that some groups may suffer a biomass decrease when MPAs are set or enforced, due to the combined effect of artisanal and recreational fisheries. Overall, our results illustrate the value of modelling to manage MPAs, as a complementary tool to surveys. Models provide the opportunity to anticipate the potential consequences, at the ecosystem level, of socio-political decisions that aim to sustain coastal resources while managing artisanal and recreational fisheries.

Résumé: Why are marine species where they are? The scientific community is faced with an urgent need to understand aquatic ecosystem dynamics in the context of global change. This requires development of scientific tools with the capability to predict how biodiversity, natural resources, and ecosystem services will change in response to stressors such as climate change and further expansion of fishing. Species distribution models and ecosystem models are two methodologies that are being developed to further this understanding. To date, these methodologies offer limited capabilities to work jointly to produce integrated assessments that take both food web dynamics and spatial-temporal environmental variability into account. We here present a new habitat capacity model as an implementation of the spatial-temporal model Ecospace of the Ecopath with Ecosim approach. The new model offers the ability to drive foraging capacity of species from the cumulative impacts of multiple physical, oceanographic, and environmental factors such as depth, bottom type, temperature, salinity, oxygen concentrations, and so on. We use a simulation modeling procedure to evaluate sampling characteristics of the new habitat capacity model. This development bridges the gap between envelope environmental models and classic ecosystem food web models, progressing toward the ability to predict changes in marine ecosystems under scenarios of global change and explicitly taking food web direct and indirect interactions into account.

Résumé: Thirty years of progress using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) approach in different fields such as ecosystem impacts of fishing and climate change, emergent ecosystem dynamics, ecosystem-based management, and marine conservation and spatial planning were showcased November 2014 at the conference “Ecopath 30 years-modelling dynamic ecosystems: beyond boundaries with EwE”. Exciting new developments include temporal-spatial and end-to-end modelling, as well as novel applications to environmental impact analyses, in both aquatic and terrestrial domains. A wide range of plug-ins have been added to extend the diagnostic capabilities of EwE, and the scientific community is applying EwE to a diversified range of topics besides fishing impact assessments, such as the development of scientific advice for management, the analysis of conservation issues, and the evaluation of cumulative impacts of environmental and human activities in marine food webs (including habitat modification and the invasion of alien species). Especially promising is the new potential to include the EwE model in integrated assessments with other models such as those related to climate change research. However, there are still many challenges, including the communication of scientific results in management procedures. In addition, other important scientific issues are how to improve model result validation and perform model quality control. During the conference, the Ecopath International Research and Development Consortium was presented as a way for the EwE user community to become involved in the long-term sustainability of the EwE approach. Overall, exciting times are facing the ecosystem modelling scientific community, and as illustrated by the conference: synergistic cooperation is the future path for the EwE approach.