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Auteur (up) Tagliabue, A.; Barrier, N.; Du Pontavice, H.; Kwiatkowski, L.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Cheung, W.W.L.; Gascuel, D.; Maury, O. doi  openurl
  Titre An iron cycle cascade governs the response of equatorial Pacific ecosystems to climate change Type Article scientifique
  Année 2020 Publication Revue Abrégée Glob. Change Biol.  
  Volume 26 Numéro 11 Pages 6168-6179  
  Mots-Clés 21st-century projections; climate change; communities; iron; marine ecosystems; metals; model; net primary production; ocean; phytoplankton; uncertainties  
  Résumé Earth System Models project that global climate change will reduce ocean net primary production (NPP), upper trophic level biota biomass and potential fisheries catches in the future, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, projections from Earth System Models are undermined by poorly constrained assumptions regarding the biological cycling of iron, which is the main limiting resource for NPP over large parts of the ocean. In this study, we show that the climate change trends in NPP and the biomass of upper trophic levels are strongly affected by modifying assumptions associated with phytoplankton iron uptake. Using a suite of model experiments, we find 21st century climate change impacts on regional NPP range from -12.3% to +2.4% under a high emissions climate change scenario. This wide range arises from variations in the efficiency of iron retention in the upper ocean in the eastern equatorial Pacific across different scenarios of biological iron uptake, which affect the strength of regional iron limitation. Those scenarios where nitrogen limitation replaced iron limitation showed the largest projected NPP declines, while those where iron limitation was more resilient displayed little future change. All model scenarios have similar skill in reproducing past inter-annual variations in regional ocean NPP, largely due to limited change in the historical period. Ultimately, projections of end of century upper trophic level biomass change are altered by 50%-80% across all plausible scenarios. Overall, we find that uncertainties in the biological iron cycle cascade through open ocean pelagic ecosystems, from plankton to fish, affecting their evolution under climate change. This highlights additional challenges to developing effective conservation and fisheries management policies under climate change.  
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  Langue English Langue du Résumé Titre Original  
  Éditeur de collection Titre de collection Titre de collection Abrégé  
  Volume de collection Numéro de collection Edition  
  ISSN 1354-1013 ISBN Médium  
  Région Expédition Conférence  
  Notes WOS:000572177100001 Approuvé pas de  
  Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ collection 2899  
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