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Auteur (up) Valladares, F.; Matesanz, S.; Guilhaumon, F.; Araujo, M.B.; Balaguer, L.; Benito-Garzon, M.; Cornwell, W.; Gianoli, E.; van Kleunen, M.; Naya, D.E.; Nicotra, A.B.; Poorter, H.; Zavala, M.A. url  doi
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  Titre The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change Type Article scientifique
  Année 2014 Publication Revue Abrégée Ecology Letters  
  Volume 17 Numéro 11 Pages 1351-1364  
  Mots-Clés change impacts; climate change; climate variability hypothesis; ecological niche models; edge populations; environments; evolution; genetic differentiation; global change; intraspecific variation; local adaptation; niche; phenotypic plasticity; population differentiation; quercus-coccifera; reaction norms; thermal tolerance; tree populations  
  Résumé Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.  
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  Langue English Langue du Résumé Titre Original  
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  ISSN 1461-023x ISBN Médium  
  Région Expédition Conférence  
  Notes <p>ISI Document Delivery No.: AT8YX<br/>Times Cited: 4<br/>Cited Reference Count: 80<br/>Valladares, Fernando Matesanz, Silvia Guilhaumon, Francois Araujo, Miguel B. Balaguer, Luis Benito-Garzon, Marta Cornwell, Will Gianoli, Ernesto van Kleunen, Mark Naya, Daniel E. Nicotra, Adrienne B. Poorter, Hendrik Zavala, Miguel A.<br/>Spanish Ministry for Innovation and Science with the grant Consolider Montes [CSD2008 00040]; Community of Madrid grant REMEDINAL 2 [CM S2009 AMB 1783]; CYTED network ECONS [410RT0406]; Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness [1/SAE-SCTN/ALENT-07-0224-FEDER-001755, CGL2011-26852]<br/>This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry for Innovation and Science with the grant Consolider Montes [CSD2008 00040], the Community of Madrid grant REMEDINAL 2 [CM S2009 AMB 1783], and CYTED network ECONS (410RT0406). The Pinus sylvestris provenance tests used in this research are part of the Spanish Network of Genetic Trials (GENFORED). We thank all those involved in the establishment, maintenance and measurement of the trials. MBA also thanks the Portuguese IC&DT Call No 1/SAE-SCTN/ALENT-07-0224-FEDER-001755 and CGL2011-26852 project of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for support of his research.<br/>Wiley-blackwell<br/>Hoboken</p> Approuvé pas de  
  Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ alain.herve @ collection 1176  
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