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Auteur Descombes, P.; Wisz, M.S.; Leprieur, F.; Parravicini, V.; Heine, C.; Olsen, S.M.; Swingedouw, D.; Kulbicki, M.; Mouillot, D.; Pellissier, L.
Titre Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change Type Article scientifique
Année 2015 Publication Revue Abrégée Glob Change Biol
Volume 21 Numéro 7 Pages 2479-2487
Mots-Clés fish; fossil; Sea surface temperature; specialists; species distribution model; species richness
Résumé Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change.
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ISSN 1365-2486 ISBN Médium
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Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ alain.herve @ collection 1362
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Auteur Evans, S.M.; McKenna, C.; Simpson, S.D.; Tournois, J.; Genner, M.J.
Titre Patterns of species range evolution in Indo-Pacific reef assemblages reveal the Coral Triangle as a net source of transoceanic diversity Type Article scientifique
Année 2016 Publication Revue Abrégée Biol. Lett.
Volume 12 Numéro 6 Pages 20160090
Mots-Clés Bayesian skyline plot; biogeography; climate change; coral reef; fishes global patterns; marine biodiversity; ocean; phylogeography; refugia; species distributions
Résumé The Coral Triangle in the Indo-Pacific is a region renowned for exceptional marine biodiversity. The area could have acted as a 'centre of origin' where speciation has been prolific or a 'centre of survival' by providing refuge during major environmental shifts such as sea-level changes. The region could also have acted as a 'centre of accumulation' for species with origins outside of the Coral Triangle, owing to it being at a central position between the Indian and Pacific oceans. Here, we investigated support for these hypotheses using population-level DNA sequence-based reconstructions of the range evolution of 45 species (314 populations) of Indo-Pacific reef-associated organisms. Our results show that populations undergoing the most ancient establishment were significantly more likely to be closer to the centre of the Coral Triangle than to peripheral locations. The data are consistent with the Coral Triangle being a net source of coral-reef biodiversity for the Indo-Pacific region, suggesting that the region has acted primarily as a centre of survival, a centre of origin or both. These results provide evidence of how a key location can influence the large-scale distributions of biodiversity over evolutionary timescales.
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Langue English Langue du Résumé Titre Original
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Volume de collection Numéro de collection Edition
ISSN 1744-9561 ISBN Médium
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Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ alain.herve @ collection 1694
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Auteur Genovesi, B.; Berrebi, P.; Nagai, S.; Reynaud, N.; Wang, J.; Masseret, E.
Titre Geographic structure evidenced in the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium pacificum Litaker (A. catenella – group IV (Whedon & Kofoid) Balech) along Japanese and Chinese coastal waters Type Article scientifique
Année 2015 Publication Revue Abrégée Marine Pollution Bulletin
Volume 98 Numéro 1–2 Pages 95-105
Mots-Clés Alexandrium pacificum (A. catenella – group IV); Harmful algal blooms; Invasive species distribution; Microsatellites markers; Temperate Asian coasts; Toxic dinoflagellate
Résumé Abstract

The intra-specific diversity and genetic structure within the Alexandrium pacificum Litaker (A. catenella – Group IV) populations along the Temperate Asian coasts, were studied among individuals isolated from Japan to China. The UPGMA dendrogram and FCA revealed the existence of 3 clusters. Assignment analysis suggested the occurrence of gene flows between the Japanese Pacific coast (cluster-1) and the Chinese Zhejiang coast (cluster-2). Human transportations are suspected to explain the lack of genetic difference between several pairs of distant Japanese samples, hardly explained by a natural dispersal mechanism. The genetic isolation of the population established in the Sea of Japan (cluster-3) suggested the existence of a strong ecological and geographical barrier. Along the Pacific coasts, the South–North current allows limited exchanges between Chinese and Japanese populations. The relationships between Temperate Asian and Mediterranean individuals suggested different scenario of large-scale dispersal mechanisms.
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Langue Langue du Résumé Titre Original
Éditeur de collection Titre de collection Titre de collection Abrégé
Volume de collection Numéro de collection Edition
ISSN 0025-326x ISBN Médium
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Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ alain.herve @ collection 1352
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Auteur Gruss, A.; Yemane, D.; Fairweather, T.P.
Titre Exploring the spatial distribution patterns of South African Cape hakes using generalised additive models Type Article scientifique
Année 2016 Publication Revue Abrégée Afr. J. Mar. Sci.
Volume 38 Numéro 3 Pages 395-409
Mots-Clés abundance; benguela ecosystem; distribution maps; fish; Merluccius capensis; Merluccius paradoxus; prediction; South Africa; spatial distributions; species distributions
Résumé We developed delta generalised additive models (GAMs) to predict the spatial distribution of different size classes of South African hakes, Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus, using demersal trawl survey data and geographical (latitude and longitude) and environmental features (depth, temperature, bottom dissolved oxygen and sediment type). Our approach consists of fitting, for each hake size class, two independent models, a binomial GAM and a quasi-Poisson GAM, whose predictions are then combined using the delta method. Delta GAMs were validated using an iterative cross-validation procedure, and their predictions were then employed to produce distribution maps for the southern Benguela. Delta GAM predictions confirmed existing knowledge about the spatial distribution patterns of South African hakes, and brought new insights into the factors influencing the presence/absence and abundance of these species. Our GAM approach can be used to produce distribution maps for spatially explicit ecosystem models of the southern Benguela in a rigorous and objective way. Ecosystem models are critical features of the ecosystem approach to fisheries, and distribution maps constructed using our GAM approach will enable a reliable allocation of species biomasses in spatially explicit ecosystem models, which will increase trust in the spatial overlaps and, therefore, the trophic interactions predicted by these models.
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Langue English Langue du Résumé Titre Original
Éditeur de collection Titre de collection Titre de collection Abrégé
Volume de collection Numéro de collection Edition
ISSN 1814-232x ISBN Médium
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Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ alain.herve @ collection 1686
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Auteur Hattab, T.; Albouy, C.; Lasram, F.B.R.; Somot, S.; Le Loc'h, F.; Leprieur, F.
Titre Towards a better understanding of potential impacts of climate change on marine species distribution: a multiscale modelling approach Type Article scientifique
Année 2014 Publication Revue Abrégée Global Ecology and Biogeography
Volume 23 Numéro 12 Pages 1417-1429
Mots-Clés climate change; exploited species; habitat loss; hierarchical filtering; Mediterranean Sea; spatial scale; species distribution modelling
Résumé Aim In this paper, we applied the concept of ‘hierarchical filters’ in community ecology to model marine species distribution at nested spatial scales. Location Global, Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia). Methods We combined the predictions of bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs) and habitat models to assess the current distribution of 20 exploited marine species in the Gulf of Gabes. BEMs were first built at a global extent to account for the full range of climatic conditions encountered by a given species. Habitat models were then built using fine-grained habitat variables at the scale of the Gulf of Gabes. We also used this hierarchical filtering approach to project the future distribution of these species under both climate change (the A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8) and habitat loss (the loss of Posidonia oceanica meadows) scenarios. Results The hierarchical filtering approach predicted current species geographical ranges to be on average 56% smaller than those predicted using the BEMs alone. This pattern was also observed under the climate change scenario. Combining the habitat loss and climate change scenarios indicated that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change was larger than from the loss of P. oceanica meadows. Main conclusions Our findings emphasize that BEMs may overestimate current and future ranges of marine species if species–habitat relationships are not also considered. A hierarchical filtering approach that accounts for fine-grained habitat variables limits the uncertainty associated with model-based recommendations, thus ensuring their outputs remain applicable within the context of marine resource management.
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ISSN 1466-8238 ISBN Médium
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Numéro d'Appel LL @ pixluser @ collection 391
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