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Auteur Schickele, A.; Goberville, E.; Leroy, B.; Beaugrand, G.; Hattab, T.; Francour, P.; Raybaud, V.
Titre European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios Type Article scientifique
Année 2020 Publication Revue Abrégée Fish and Fisheries
Volume Numéro Pages
Mots-Clés climate change; ecological niche; exclusive economic zone; range shift; species distribution models; uncertainties
Résumé The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence of warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve the way we project the effects of future climate warming on fisheries. While estimating future climate-induced changes in fish distribution is an important contribution to sustainable resource management, the impacts on European small pelagic fish—representing over 50% of the landings in the Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 and 2013—are yet largely understudied. Here, we investigated potential changes in the spatial distribution of seven of the most harvested small pelagic fish species in Europe under several climate change scenarios over the 21st century. For each species, we considered eight Species Distribution Models (SDMs), five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs). Under all scenarios, our results revealed that the environmental suitability for most of the seven species may strongly decrease in the Mediterranean and western North Sea while increasing in the Black and Baltic Seas. This potential northward range expansion of species is supported by a strong convergence among projections and a low variability between RCPs. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), climate-related local extinctions were expected in the south-eastern Mediterranean basin. Our results highlight that a multi-SDM, multi-GCM, multi-RCP approach is needed to produce more robust ecological scenarios of changes in exploited fish stocks in order to better anticipate the economic and social consequences of global climate change.
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Éditeur de collection Titre de collection Titre de collection Abrégé
Volume de collection Numéro de collection Edition
ISSN 1467-2979 ISBN Médium
Région Expédition Conférence
Notes WOS:000581825300001 Approuvé pas de
Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ collection 2880
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Auteur Schickele, A.; Leroy, B.; Beaugrand, G.; Goberville, E.; Hattab, T.; Francour, P.; Raybaud, V.
Titre Modelling European small pelagic fish distribution: Methodological insights Type Article scientifique
Année 2020 Publication Revue Abrégée Ecological Modelling
Volume 416 Numéro Pages 108902
Mots-Clés Convex hull; Pseudo-absence; Sampling bias; Small pelagic fish; Species distribution models; Uncertainty
Résumé The distribution of marine organisms is strongly influenced by climatic gradients worldwide. The ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of a species, i.e. the combination of environmental tolerances and resources required by an organism, interacts with the environment to determine its geographical range. This duality between niche and distribution allows climate change biologists to model potential species’ distributions from past to future conditions. While species distribution models (SDMs) have been intensively used over the last years, no consensual framework to parametrise, calibrate and evaluate models has emerged. Here, to model the contemporary (1990–2017) spatial distribution of seven highly harvested European small pelagic fish species, we implemented a comprehensive and replicable numerical procedure based on 8 SDMs (7 from the Biomod2 framework plus the NPPEN model). This procedure considers critical issues in species distribution modelling such as sampling bias, pseudo-absence selection, model evaluation and uncertainty quantification respectively through (i) an environmental filtration of observation data, (ii) a convex hull based pseudo-absence selection, (iii) a multi-criteria evaluation of model outputs and (iv) an ensemble modelling approach. By mitigating environmental sampling bias in observation data and by identifying the most ecologically relevant predictors, our framework helps to improve the modelling of fish species’ environmental suitability. Not only average temperature, but also temperature variability appears as major factors driving small pelagic fish distribution, and areas of highest environmental suitability were found along the north-western Mediterranean coasts, the Bay of Biscay and the North Sea. We demonstrate in this study that the use of appropriate data pre-processing techniques, an often-overlooked step in modelling, increase model predictive performance, strengthening our confidence in the reliability of predictions.
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ISSN 0304-3800 ISBN Médium
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Notes WOS:000514022500015 Approuvé pas de
Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ collection 2675
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Auteur Stephenson, F.; Goetz, K.; Sharp, B.R.; Mouton, T.L.; Beets, F.L.; Roberts, J.; MacDiarmid, A.B.; Constantine, R.; Lundquist, C.J.
Titre Modelling the spatial distribution of cetaceans in New Zealand waters Type Article scientifique
Année 2020 Publication Revue Abrégée Diversity and Distributions
Volume 26 Numéro 4 Pages 495-516
Mots-Clés boosted regression tree models; cetacean distribution; New Zealand; relative environmental suitability models; spatial management; species distribution models
Résumé Aim Cetaceans are inherently difficult to study due to their elusive, pelagic and often highly migratory nature. New Zealand waters are home to 50% of the world's cetacean species, but their spatial distributions are poorly known. Here, we model distributions of 30 cetacean taxa using an extensive at-sea sightings dataset (n > 14,000) and high-resolution (1 km2) environmental data layers. Location New Zealand's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Methods Two models were used to predict probability of species occurrence based on available sightings records. For taxa with <50 sightings (n = 15), Relative Environmental Suitability (RES), and for taxa with ≥50 sightings (n = 15), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models were used. Independently collected presence/absence data were used for further model evaluation for a subset of taxa. Results RES models for rarely sighted species showed reasonable fits to available sightings and stranding data based on literature and expert knowledge on the species' autecology. BRT models showed high predictive power for commonly sighted species (AUC: 0.79–0.99). Important variables for predicting the occurrence of cetacean taxa were temperature residuals, bathymetry, distance to the 500 m isobath, mixed layer depth and water turbidity. Cetacean distribution patterns varied from highly localised, nearshore (e.g., Hector's dolphin), to more ubiquitous (e.g., common dolphin) to primarily offshore species (e.g., blue whale). Cetacean richness based on stacked species occurrence layers illustrated patterns of fewer inshore taxa with localised richness hotspots, and higher offshore richness especially in locales of the Macquarie Ridge, Bounty Trough and Chatham Rise. Main conclusions Predicted spatial distributions fill a major knowledge gap towards informing future assessments and conservation planning for cetaceans in New Zealand's extensive EEZ. While sightings datasets were not spatially comprehensive for any taxa, these two best available approaches allow for predictive modelling of both more common, and of rarely sighted, cetacean species with limited available information.
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Langue (up) en Langue du Résumé Titre Original
Éditeur de collection Titre de collection Titre de collection Abrégé
Volume de collection Numéro de collection Edition
ISSN 1472-4642 ISBN Médium
Région Expédition Conférence
Notes WOS:000510589200001 Approuvé pas de
Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ collection 2692
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Auteur Albouy, C.; Lasram, F.B.R.; Velez, L.; Guilhaumon, F.; Meynard, C.N.; Boyer, S.; Benestan, L.; Mouquet, N.; Douzery, E.; Aznar, R.; Troussellier, M.; Somot, S.; Leprieur, F.; Le Loc'h, F.; Mouillot, D.
Titre FishMed: traits, phylogeny, current and projected species distribution of Mediterranean fishes, and environmental data Type Article scientifique
Année 2015 Publication Revue Abrégée Ecology
Volume 96 Numéro 8 Pages 2312-2313
Mots-Clés climate change; coastal fishes; functional diversity; Mediterranean fish species; Mediterranean Sea; Nemomed8; phylogenetic diversity; species distribution models; taxonomic diversity
Résumé The FishMed database provides traits, phylogeny, current and projected species distribution of Mediterranean fishes, and associated sea surface temperature (SST) from the regional oceanic model NEMOMED8. Data for the current geographical distributions of 635 Mediterranean fish species were compiled from a published expert knowledge atlas of fishes of the northern Atlantic and the Mediterranean (FNAM) edited between 1984 and 1986 and from an updated exotic fish species list. Two future sets of projected species distributions were obtained for the middle and end of the 21st century by using an ensemble forecasting approach for 288 coastal Mediterranean fish species based on SST according to the IPPC/SRES A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. The functional part of the database encompasses 12 biological and ecological traits (maximal and common lengths, vertical distribution, habitat, migration type, mode of reproduction, sex shift, semelparity, diet type (larvae and adults), social behavior, species origin, and depth) for the 635 fish species. To build the phylogeny we inferred the timing and geographic origins of Mediterranean teleost species diversity using nucleotide sequences collected from GenBank including 62% of Mediterranean teleost species plus nine outgroups. Maximum likelihood Bayesian phylogenetic and dating analyses were calibrated using 20 fossil species. An additional 124 fish species were grafted onto the chronogram according to their taxonomic affinity to obtain a phylogenetic tree including 498 species. Finally we also present the associated SST data for the observed period (1961–1980) and for the middle (2040–2059) and the end of the 21st century (2080–2099) obtained from NEMOMED8 according to the IPCC A2 scenario. The FishMed database might be of interest in the context of global anthropogenic changes as coastal Mediterranean ecosystems are currently recognized as one of the most impacted ecosystems on earth.
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Langue (up) en Langue du Résumé Titre Original
Éditeur de collection Titre de collection Titre de collection Abrégé
Volume de collection Numéro de collection Edition
ISSN 1939-9170 ISBN Médium
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Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ alain.herve @ collection 1471
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Auteur Benedetti, F.; Vogt, M.; Righetti, D.; Guilhaumon, F.; Ayata, S.-D.
Titre Do functional groups of planktonic copepods differ in their ecological niches? Type Article scientifique
Année 2018 Publication Revue Abrégée J. Biogeogr.
Volume 45 Numéro 3 Pages 604-616
Mots-Clés climate-change; copepods; species distribution models; north-atlantic; calanus-finmarchicus; mediterranean sea; environmental niche; functional groups; lipid pump; marine ecosystem; oithona-similis; pseudo-absences; trait biogeography; zooplankton; zooplankton fecal pellets
Résumé Aim: To assess the degree of overlap between the environmental niches of marine planktonic copepods and test if the distribution of copepod functional groups differs across environmental gradients. Location: The Mediterranean Sea. Methods: Functional groups were defined based on clustering of functional traits in 106 marine copepod species using a multivariate ordination analysis. Functional traits included maximum body length, feeding mode, spawning strategy and trophic group. Simultaneously, the global distribution of the species was used to model their environmental niches with six environmental variables. For each of these predictors, four niche parameters were derived from the univariate response curve of each species to summarise their environmental preferences and ordinate the species in niche space through a PCA. Finally, the differences in the position in niche space of functional groups were tested with variance analysis. Results: We identified seven copepod functional groups with different distributions along the environmental gradients covered by our study. While carnivorous functional groups were affiliated with oligotrophic and tropical conditions, large and small current-feeding herbivores are associated with colder, more seasonally varying and productive conditions. Small cruising detritivores and other small current-feeding herbivores were not affiliated with specific conditions as their constituting species were scattered in niche space. Main conclusions: Since copepod functional groups occupy distinct ecological niches, ecosystem processes related to these groups are expected to vary across environmental gradients. Conditions favouring large current-feeding herbivores should allow for enhanced fluxes of energy and nutrients through Mediterranean Sea ecosystems, while such fluxes should be weakened where large carnivores and small passive ambush-feeding copepods dominate. Our study supports the development of trait-based zooplankton functional groups in marine ecosystem models.
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Langue (up) English Langue du Résumé Titre Original
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Volume de collection Numéro de collection Edition
ISSN 0305-0270 ISBN Médium
Région Expédition Conférence
Notes Approuvé pas de
Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ alain.herve @ collection 2311
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