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Auteur Cazelles, K.; Mouquet, N.; Mouillot, D.; Gravel, D.
Titre On the integration of biotic interaction and environmental constraints at the biogeographical scale Type Article scientifique
Année 2016 Publication Revue Abrégée Ecography
Volume 39 Numéro 10 Pages 921-931
Mots-Clés biodiversity; climate-change; cooccurrence; distributions; ecological communities; evolutionary; food webs; networks; niche; species distribution models
Résumé Biogeography is primarily concerned with the spatial distribution of biodiversity, including performing scenarios in a changing environment. The efforts deployed to develop species distribution models have resulted in predictive tools, but have mostly remained correlative and have largely ignored biotic interactions. Here we build upon the theory of island biogeography as a first approximation to the assembly dynamics of local communities embedded within a metacommunity context. We include all types of interactions and introduce environmental constraints on colonization and extinction dynamics. We develop a probabilistic framework based on Markov chains and derive probabilities for the realization of species assemblages, rather than single species occurrences. We consider the expected distribution of species richness under different types of ecological interactions. We also illustrate the potential of our framework by studying the interplay between different ecological requirements, interactions and the distribution of biodiversity along an environmental gradient. Our framework supports the idea that the future research in biogeography requires a coherent integration of several ecological concepts into a single theory in order to perform conceptual and methodological innovations, such as the switch from single-species distribution to community distribution.
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ISSN (up) 0906-7590 ISBN Médium
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Auteur Benedetti, F.; Guilhaumon, F.; Adloff, F.; Ayata, S.-D.
Titre Investigating uncertainties in zooplankton composition shifts under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Sea Type Article scientifique
Année 2018 Publication Revue Abrégée Ecography
Volume 41 Numéro 2 Pages 345-360
Mots-Clés marine biodiversity; species distribution models; north-atlantic; beta diversity; calanoid copepods; ecological-niche; envelope models; habitat-suitability; mass mortality; pseudo-absence data
Résumé Ensemble niche modelling has become a common framework to predict changes in assemblages composition under climate change scenarios. The amount of uncertainty generated by the different components of this framework has rarely been assessed. In the marine realm forecasts have usually focused on taxa representing the top of the marine food-web, thus overlooking their basal component: the plankton. Calibrating environmental niche models at the global scale, we modelled the habitat suitability of 106 copepod species and estimated the dissimilarity between present and future zooplanktonic assemblages in the surface Mediterranean Sea. We identified the patterns (species replacement versus nestedness) driving the predicted dissimilarity, and quantified the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources: environmental niche models, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, circulation model configurations and species prevalence. Our results confirm that the choice of the niche modelling method is the greatest source of uncertainty in habitat suitability projections. Presence-only and presence-absence methods provided different visions of the niches, which subsequently lead to different future scenarios of biodiversity changes. Nestedness with decline in species richness is the pattern driving dissimilarity between present and future copepod assemblages. Our projections contrast with those reported for higher trophic levels, suggesting that different components of the pelagic food-web may respond discordantly to future climatic changes.
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ISSN (up) 0906-7590 ISBN Médium
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Auteur Morato, T.; Gonzalez-Irusta, J.-M.; Dominguez-Carrio, C.; Wei, C.-L.; Davies, A.; Sweetman, A.K.; Taranto, G.H.; Beazley, L.; Garcia-Alegre, A.; Grehan, A.; Laffargue, P.; Murillo, F.J.; Sacau, M.; Vaz, S.; Kenchington, E.; Arnaud-Haond, S.; Callery, O.; Chimienti, G.; Cordes, E.; Egilsdottir, H.; Freiwald, A.; Gasbarro, R.; Gutierrez-Zarate, C.; Gianni, M.; Gilkinson, K.; Wareham Hayes, V.E.; Hebbeln, D.; Hedges, K.; Henry, L.-A.; Johnson, D.; Koen-Alonso, M.; Lirette, C.; Mastrototaro, F.; Menot, L.; Molodtsova, T.; Duran Munoz, P.; Orejas, C.; Pennino, M.G.; Puerta, P.; Ragnarsson, S. a; Ramiro-Sanchez, B.; Rice, J.; Rivera, J.; Roberts, J.M.; Ross, S.W.; Rueda, J.L.; Sampaio, I.; Snelgrove, P.; Stirling, D.; Treble, M.A.; Urra, J.; Vad, J.; van Oevelen, D.; Watling, L.; Walkusz, W.; Wienberg, C.; Woillez, M.; Levin, L.A.; Carreiro-Silva, M.
Titre Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold-water corals and commercially important deep-sea fishes in the North Atlantic Type Article scientifique
Année 2020 Publication Revue Abrégée Glob. Change Biol.
Volume Numéro Pages
Mots-Clés calcification rates; climate change; cod gadus-morhua; cold-water corals; deep-sea; envelope models; fisheries; fishes; habitat suitability modelling; lophelia-pertusa; ocean acidification; octocorals; protected areas; scleractinian corals; scleractinians; species distribution models; species distribution models; thermal tolerance; vulnerable marine ecosystems
Résumé The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep-sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep-sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold-water coral and commercially important deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081-2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%-100% in suitable habitat for cold-water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep-sea fishes of 2.0 degrees-9.9 degrees towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%-30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%-42% of present-day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%-14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep-sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area-based planning and management tools.
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Langue English Langue du Résumé Titre Original
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ISSN (up) 1354-1013 ISBN Médium
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Notes WOS:000514391400001 Approuvé pas de
Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ collection 2752
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Auteur Stephenson, F.; Goetz, K.; Sharp, B.R.; Mouton, T.L.; Beets, F.L.; Roberts, J.; MacDiarmid, A.B.; Constantine, R.; Lundquist, C.J.
Titre Modelling the spatial distribution of cetaceans in New Zealand waters Type Article scientifique
Année 2020 Publication Revue Abrégée Diversity and Distributions
Volume 26 Numéro 4 Pages 495-516
Mots-Clés boosted regression tree models; cetacean distribution; New Zealand; relative environmental suitability models; spatial management; species distribution models
Résumé Aim Cetaceans are inherently difficult to study due to their elusive, pelagic and often highly migratory nature. New Zealand waters are home to 50% of the world's cetacean species, but their spatial distributions are poorly known. Here, we model distributions of 30 cetacean taxa using an extensive at-sea sightings dataset (n > 14,000) and high-resolution (1 km2) environmental data layers. Location New Zealand's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Methods Two models were used to predict probability of species occurrence based on available sightings records. For taxa with <50 sightings (n = 15), Relative Environmental Suitability (RES), and for taxa with ≥50 sightings (n = 15), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models were used. Independently collected presence/absence data were used for further model evaluation for a subset of taxa. Results RES models for rarely sighted species showed reasonable fits to available sightings and stranding data based on literature and expert knowledge on the species' autecology. BRT models showed high predictive power for commonly sighted species (AUC: 0.79–0.99). Important variables for predicting the occurrence of cetacean taxa were temperature residuals, bathymetry, distance to the 500 m isobath, mixed layer depth and water turbidity. Cetacean distribution patterns varied from highly localised, nearshore (e.g., Hector's dolphin), to more ubiquitous (e.g., common dolphin) to primarily offshore species (e.g., blue whale). Cetacean richness based on stacked species occurrence layers illustrated patterns of fewer inshore taxa with localised richness hotspots, and higher offshore richness especially in locales of the Macquarie Ridge, Bounty Trough and Chatham Rise. Main conclusions Predicted spatial distributions fill a major knowledge gap towards informing future assessments and conservation planning for cetaceans in New Zealand's extensive EEZ. While sightings datasets were not spatially comprehensive for any taxa, these two best available approaches allow for predictive modelling of both more common, and of rarely sighted, cetacean species with limited available information.
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Langue en Langue du Résumé Titre Original
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Volume de collection Numéro de collection Edition
ISSN (up) 1472-4642 ISBN Médium
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Notes WOS:000510589200001 Approuvé pas de
Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ collection 2692
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Auteur Albouy, C.; Lasram, F.B.R.; Velez, L.; Guilhaumon, F.; Meynard, C.N.; Boyer, S.; Benestan, L.; Mouquet, N.; Douzery, E.; Aznar, R.; Troussellier, M.; Somot, S.; Leprieur, F.; Le Loc'h, F.; Mouillot, D.
Titre FishMed: traits, phylogeny, current and projected species distribution of Mediterranean fishes, and environmental data Type Article scientifique
Année 2015 Publication Revue Abrégée Ecology
Volume 96 Numéro 8 Pages 2312-2313
Mots-Clés climate change; coastal fishes; functional diversity; Mediterranean fish species; Mediterranean Sea; Nemomed8; phylogenetic diversity; species distribution models; taxonomic diversity
Résumé The FishMed database provides traits, phylogeny, current and projected species distribution of Mediterranean fishes, and associated sea surface temperature (SST) from the regional oceanic model NEMOMED8. Data for the current geographical distributions of 635 Mediterranean fish species were compiled from a published expert knowledge atlas of fishes of the northern Atlantic and the Mediterranean (FNAM) edited between 1984 and 1986 and from an updated exotic fish species list. Two future sets of projected species distributions were obtained for the middle and end of the 21st century by using an ensemble forecasting approach for 288 coastal Mediterranean fish species based on SST according to the IPPC/SRES A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. The functional part of the database encompasses 12 biological and ecological traits (maximal and common lengths, vertical distribution, habitat, migration type, mode of reproduction, sex shift, semelparity, diet type (larvae and adults), social behavior, species origin, and depth) for the 635 fish species. To build the phylogeny we inferred the timing and geographic origins of Mediterranean teleost species diversity using nucleotide sequences collected from GenBank including 62% of Mediterranean teleost species plus nine outgroups. Maximum likelihood Bayesian phylogenetic and dating analyses were calibrated using 20 fossil species. An additional 124 fish species were grafted onto the chronogram according to their taxonomic affinity to obtain a phylogenetic tree including 498 species. Finally we also present the associated SST data for the observed period (1961–1980) and for the middle (2040–2059) and the end of the 21st century (2080–2099) obtained from NEMOMED8 according to the IPCC A2 scenario. The FishMed database might be of interest in the context of global anthropogenic changes as coastal Mediterranean ecosystems are currently recognized as one of the most impacted ecosystems on earth.
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ISSN (up) 1939-9170 ISBN Médium
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Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ alain.herve @ collection 1471
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