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Auteur Blanchard, F.; Chaboud, C.; Thebaud, O.
Titre Back to the future: A retrospective assessment of model-based scenarios for the management of the shrimp fishery in French Guiana facing global change Type Article scientifique
Année Publication Revue Abrégée Nat. Resour. Model.
Volume Numéro Pages e12232
Mots-Clés bio-economic model; climate change; numerical simulation; retrospective analysis; seafood market; tropical shrimp fishery; uncertainty
Résumé While the number of models dedicated to predicting the consequences of alternative resource management strategies has increased, instances in which authors look back at past predictions to learn from discrepancies between these and observed developments are scarce. In the past decades, the French Guiana shrimp fishery has experienced shrimp market globalization and decreasing levels of shrimp recruitment due to environmental changes. In 2006, a bio-economic model of this fishery was developed to simulate its possible responses to economic and environmental scenarios up to 2016. Here, we compare here these predictions to the observed trajectories. While the number of active vessels corresponds to that which was predicted, the estimated shrimp stock does not. Important driving factors had not been anticipated, including a general strike, natural disasters, and the end of the global financial crisis. These results show the importance of participative approaches involving stakeholders in the co-construction and shared representation of scenarios. Recommendations for resource managers Effective fisheries resources management and a fortiori, the capacity of the fisheries to adapt to global change, requires understanding of both ecological and economics dynamics. The temporal trajectory of the trawling shrimp fisheries has been well monitored, and the decline of both stock and fleet is understood regarding ecological and economic changes: Changes in the environmental conditions of shrimp recruitment, and oil price increase and selling price decrease. However, our bio-economic modeling work showed that, even with a good understanding of the dynamics explaining past trajectories, unpredictable events (strike, natural disasters horizontal ellipsis ) have acted as other key driving factors altering the capacity of the model to represent possible futures. These results led us to recommend a better integration of the expertise of social and political scientists in developing models of bio-economic systems to increase the quality of scenario predictions, and to argue for more participative approaches involving the stakeholders.
Auteur institutionnel Thèse
Editeur Lieu de Publication Éditeur
Langue English Langue du Résumé Titre Original
Éditeur de collection Titre de collection Titre de collection Abrégé
Volume de collection Numéro de collection Edition
ISSN 0890-8575 ISBN Médium
Région Expédition Conférence
Notes WOS:000476048000001 Approuvé pas de
Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ collection 2618
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Titre Lessons from the past: investigating historical data from bluefin tuna fisheries Type Article scientifique
Année 2009 Publication Fish and Fisheries Revue Abrégée
Volume 10 Numéro 2 Pages 197-216
Mots-Clés Thunnus thynnus; Retrospective analysis; Population structure; Migration patterns; Fisheries collapse
Résumé In 1963, the leading fisheries targeting Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the Norwegian Sea and North Sea suddenly collapsed without any warning. Little is known about this collapse and several hypotheses have been put forward, such as changes in migratory routes, recruitment failure or eradication of a sub-population: all of these hypotheses could result from natural causes and/or from overfishing. To help explain this mysterious event, an original data set of the main bluefin tuna fisheries of the 20th century, including total catch and size composition of the catch, has been compiled and analysed. The results reveal a strong and unambiguous link between the Nordic purse seine and Spanish trap fisheries during the 1950s and 1960s. However, this link vanished during the 1970s. In addition, the North-west Atlantic and Mediterranean trap fisheries appeared also to be partially connected to the Nordic fisheries. During the 1950s and 1960s, the main migration routes of bluefin tuna were probably from the Mediterranean spawning grounds and from the West Atlantic coasts to the Norwegian coast and North Sea, which were probably a key feeding ground at that time. The analyses also lead to the conclusion that interactions between environmental, trophic and fishing processes have probably affected bluefin tuna migration patterns which would have finally caused the Nordic fisheries collapse. This retrospective analysis finally leads to an original – albeit more speculative – hypothesis concerning Atlantic bluefin tuna population structure, therein conjectured as an assemblage of at least three sub-populations.
Adresse IFREMER, Ctr Rech Mediterraneen & Trop, F-34203 Sete, France.
Auteur institutionnel Thèse
Editeur Wiley / Blackwell Lieu de Publication Éditeur
Langue Langue du Résumé Titre Original
Éditeur de collection Titre de collection Titre de collection Abrégé
Volume de collection Numéro de collection Edition
ISSN 1467-2960 ISBN Médium
Région Expédition Conférence
Notes Approuvé pas de
Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ 6425 collection 1026
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