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Auteur (up) Bănaru, D.; Diaz, F.; Verley, P.; Campbell, R.; Navarro, J.; Yohia, C.; Oliveros-Ramos, R.; Mellon-Duval, C.; Shin, Y.-J. url  doi
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  Titre Implementation of an end-to-end model of the Gulf of Lions ecosystem (NW Mediterranean Sea). I. Parameterization, calibration and evaluation Type Article scientifique
  Année 2019 Publication Revue Abrégée Ecological Modelling  
  Volume 401 Numéro Pages 1-19  
  Mots-Clés Ecosystem modeling; Osmose; Fisheries; Food web; Eco3M  
  Résumé An end-to-end model named OSMOSE-GoL has been built for the Gulf of Lions, the main French Mediterranean fishing area. This spatialized dynamic model links the coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model Eco3M-S/SYMPHONIE (LTL – low trophic level model) to OSMOSE (HTL – high trophic level model). It includes 15 compartments of living organisms, five from the LTL model (i.e. nanophytoplankton, microphytoplankton, nanozooplankton, microzooplankton and mesozooplankton) and ten from the HTL model (northern krill, southern shortfin squid, European pilchard, European anchovy, European sprat, Atlantic horse mackerel, Atlantic mackerel, blue whiting, European hake and Atlantic bluefin tuna). With the exception of northern krill and European sprat, all HTL species are commercially exploited and undergo fisheries mortality pressure. The modeled species represent more than 70% of annual catches in this area. This paper presents the parameterization, calibration and evaluation of this model with satellite data for phytoplankton and with biomass, landings, diet and trophic level data for HTL groups. For most species, the diets in output of OSMOSE-GoL are similar to field and literature data in terms of dominant prey groups and species. However, some differences were observed. Various reasons may explain the mismatch between the modeled diet and field data. Benthic prey sometimes observed in the stomach content of the HTL predators were not modeled in OSMOSE-GoL. Field studies were carried out at specific periods and locations, while our data concern the period 2001–2004 and the entire modeled domain. Inter- and intra-annual variations in spatial distribution and density of prey may also explain these differences. The model estimates trophic level values similar to those cited in the literature for all the HTL compartments. These values are also close to the trophic levels estimated by a previous Ecopath model for the same area and period. Even though some improvements are still possible, this model may already be of use to explore fishery or Marine Protected Areas scenarios for socio-ecosystem management issues.  
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  Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ collection 2550  
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Auteur (up) Brochier, T.; Ecoutin, J.M.; de Morais, L.T.; Kaplan, D.M.; Lae, R. doi  openurl
  Titre A multi-agent ecosystem model for studying changes in a tropical estuarine fish assemblage within a marine protected area Type Article scientifique
  Année 2013 Publication Revue Abrégée Aquatic Living Resources  
  Volume 26 Numéro 02 Pages 147-158  
  Mots-Clés ecosystem model; Life history; marine protected area; Spill-over; trophic level; Tropical estuarine fish assemblage; West Africa  
  Résumé As marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly being utilised as a tool for fishery management, their impact on the food web needs to be fully understood. However, little is known about the effect of MPAs on fish assemblages, especially in the presence of different life history and ecological traits. Modelling the observed changes in fish population structures may provide a mechanistic understanding of fish assemblage dynamics. In addition, modelling allows a quantitative estimate of MPA spill-over. To achieve this purpose, we adapted an existing ecosystem model, OSMOSE (Object-oriented simulator of marine biodiversity exploitation), to the specific case of the presence of fish with multiple life histories. The adapted model can manage 4 main categories of life history identified in an estuary MPA: fish that (1) spend their entire life cycle locally, (2) are present only as juveniles, (3) enter the area as juveniles and stay permanently except during reproduction periods, which occur outside the estuary, and (4) are present occasionally and for a short time for foraging purposes. To take into account these specific life-history traits, the OSMOSE code was modified. This modelling approach was developed in the context of the Bamboung Bolong MPA, located in a mangrove area in the Sine-Saloum Delta, Senegal. This was the ideal case to develop our approach as there has been scientific monitoring of the fish population structure inside the MPA before fishery closure, providing a reference state, and continuous monitoring since the closure. Ecologically similar species were pooled by trophic traits into 15 groups that represented 97% of the total biomass. Lower trophic levels (LTL) were represented by 6 compartments. The biomass of the model species was calibrated to reproduce the reference situation before fishery closure. Model predictions of fish assemblage changes after fishery closure corresponding to the Bamboung MPA creation scenario were compared to field observations; in most cases the model reproduces observed changes in biomass (at least in direction). We suggest the existence of a “sanctuary effect”, that was not taken into account in the model, this could explain the observed increase in biomass of top predators not reproduced by the model. Finally, the annual MPA fish spill-over was estimated at 11 tons (~33% of the fish biomass) from the model output, mainly due to diffusive effects.  
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  Numéro d'Appel LL @ pixluser @ collection 298  
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Auteur (up) Bryndum‐Buchholz, A.; Tittensor, D.P.; Blanchard, J.L.; Cheung, W.W.L.; Coll, M.; Galbraith, E.D.; Jennings, S.; Maury, O.; Lotze, H.K. url  doi
openurl 
  Titre Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins Type Article scientifique
  Année 2019 Publication Revue Abrégée Global Change Biology  
  Volume 25 Numéro 2 Pages 459-472  
  Mots-Clés climate change; ensemble modeling; future projection; marine animal biomass; marine ecosystem models; model intercomparison; ocean basins; uncertainty  
  Résumé Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%–30% (±12%–17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.  
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  ISSN 1365-2486 ISBN Médium  
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  Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ collection 2457  
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Auteur (up) Christensen, V.; Coll, M.; Buszowski, J.; Cheung, W.W.L.; Frölicher, T.; Steenbeek, J.; Stock, C.A.; Watson, R.A.; Walters, C.J. url  doi
openurl 
  Titre The global ocean is an ecosystem: simulating marine life and fisheries Type Article scientifique
  Année 2015 Publication Revue Abrégée Global Ecology and Biogeography  
  Volume 24 Numéro 5 Pages 507-517  
  Mots-Clés ecosystem model; end-to-end model; fish biomass trends; fish catches; Food security; model tuning; seafood production; world ocean  
  Résumé Aim There has been considerable effort allocated to understanding the impact of climate change on our physical environment, but comparatively little to how life on Earth and ecosystem services will be affected. Therefore, we have developed a spatial–temporal food web model of the global ocean, spanning from primary producers through to top predators and fisheries. Through this, we aim to evaluate how alternative management actions may impact the supply of seafood for future generations. Location Global ocean. Methods We developed a modelling complex to initially predict the combined impact of environmental parameters and fisheries on global seafood production, and initially evaluated the model's performance through hindcasting. The modelling complex has a food web model as core, obtains environmental productivity from a biogeochemical model and assigns global fishing effort spatially. We tuned model parameters based on Markov chain random walk stock reduction analysis, fitting the model to historic catches. We evaluated the goodness-of-fit of the model to data for major functional groups, by spatial management units and globally. Results This model is the most detailed ever constructed of global fisheries, and it was able to replicate broad patterns of historic fisheries catches with best agreement for the total catches and good agreement for species groups, with more variation at the regional level. Main conclusions We have developed a modelling complex that can be used for evaluating the combined impact of fisheries and climate change on upper-trophic level organisms in the global ocean, including invertebrates, fish and other large vertebrates. The model provides an important step that will allow global-scale evaluation of how alternative fisheries management measures can be used for mitigation of climate change.  
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  ISSN 1466-8238 ISBN Médium  
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  Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ collection 1248  
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Auteur (up) Coll, M.; Akoglu, E.; Arreguín-Sánchez, F.; Fulton, E.A.; Gascuel, D.; Heymans, J.J.; Libralato, S.; Mackinson, S.; Palomera, I.; Piroddi, C.; Shannon, L.J.; Steenbeek, J.; Villasante, S.; Christensen, V. url  doi
openurl 
  Titre Modelling dynamic ecosystems: venturing beyond boundaries with the Ecopath approach Type Article scientifique
  Année 2015 Publication Revue Abrégée Rev Fish Biol Fisheries  
  Volume 25 Numéro 2 Pages 413-424  
  Mots-Clés conservation; Cumulative impacts; Ecopath with Ecosim; ecospace; ecosystem-based management; ecosystem modelling; End-to-end modelling; Environmental impact assessment; fishing impacts; Freshwater & Marine Ecology; Zoology  
  Résumé Thirty years of progress using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) approach in different fields such as ecosystem impacts of fishing and climate change, emergent ecosystem dynamics, ecosystem-based management, and marine conservation and spatial planning were showcased November 2014 at the conference “Ecopath 30 years-modelling dynamic ecosystems: beyond boundaries with EwE”. Exciting new developments include temporal-spatial and end-to-end modelling, as well as novel applications to environmental impact analyses, in both aquatic and terrestrial domains. A wide range of plug-ins have been added to extend the diagnostic capabilities of EwE, and the scientific community is applying EwE to a diversified range of topics besides fishing impact assessments, such as the development of scientific advice for management, the analysis of conservation issues, and the evaluation of cumulative impacts of environmental and human activities in marine food webs (including habitat modification and the invasion of alien species). Especially promising is the new potential to include the EwE model in integrated assessments with other models such as those related to climate change research. However, there are still many challenges, including the communication of scientific results in management procedures. In addition, other important scientific issues are how to improve model result validation and perform model quality control. During the conference, the Ecopath International Research and Development Consortium was presented as a way for the EwE user community to become involved in the long-term sustainability of the EwE approach. Overall, exciting times are facing the ecosystem modelling scientific community, and as illustrated by the conference: synergistic cooperation is the future path for the EwE approach.  
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  ISSN 0960-3166, 1573-5184 ISBN Médium  
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  Numéro d'Appel MARBEC @ isabelle.vidal-ayouba @ collection 1249  
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