Résumé: Understanding larval connectivity patterns is critical for marine spatial planning, particularly for designing marine protected areas and managing fisheries. Patterns of larval dispersal and connectivity can be inferred from numerical transport models at large spatial and temporal scales. We assess model-based connectivity patterns between seamounts of the Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) and the coastal ecosystems of Mauritius, La Reunion, Madagascar, Mozambique and South Africa, with emphasis on three shallow seamounts (La Pemuse [LP], MAD-Ridge [MR] and Walters Shoal [WS]). Using drifter trajectory and a Lagrangian model of ichthyo-plankton dispersal, we show that larvae can undertake very long dispersion, with larval distances increasing with pelagic larval duration (PLD). There are three groups of greater connectivity: the region between the eastern coast of Madagascar, Mauritius and La Reunion islands; the seamounts of the South West Indian Ridge; and the pair formed by WS and a nearby un-named seamount. Connectivity between these three groups is evident only for the longest PLD examined (360 d). Connectivity from seamounts to coastal ecosystems is weak, with a maximum of 2% of larvae originating from seamounts reaching coastal ecosystems. Local retention at the three focal seamounts (LP, MR and WS) peaks at about 11% for the shortest PLD considered (15 d) at the most retentive seamount (WS) and decreases sharply with increasing PLD. Information on PLD and age of larvae collected at MR and LP are used to assess their putative origin. These larvae are likely self-recruits but it is also plausible that they immigrate from nearby coastal sites, i.e. the southern coast of Madagascar for MR and the islands of La Reunion and Mauritius for LP.

Résumé: Terrestrial plants seeds, spores and pollen are often dispersed by wind. Likewise, most eggs and larvae of marine organisms are dispersed by oceanic currents. It was historically believed that the spatial scale at which dispersal occurs was orders of magnitude smaller for plants than for fish. However, recent empirical estimates of seed and larval dispersal suggest that these dispersal scales are more alike than previously thought. The modeling approaches used to simulate aerial and aquatic dispersal are also converging. Similar biophysical models are developed, in which outputs of Eulerian models simulating the main physical forcing mechanism (wind or currents) are used as inputs to Lagrangian models that include biological components (such as seed terminal velocity or larval vertical migration). These biophysical models are then used to simulate trajectories of the biological entities (seeds, larvae) in three dimensions. We reflect on these converging trends by first putting them into an historical perspective, and then by comparing the physical and biological processes represented in marine larva vs. terrestrial seed dispersal models, the data used for the models output corroboration, and the tools available to perform simulations. We conclude that this convergence offers the opportunity to bridge the gap between two scientific communities which are currently largely disconnected. More broadly, we also see our comparison across systems as a useful way to strengthen the links between aquatic and terrestrial ecology by sharing knowledge, methods, tools, and concepts.

Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea (MS) is a semi-enclosed sea characterized by a zonal west-east gradient of oligotrophy, where microbial growth is controlled by phosphate availability in most situations. External inputs of nutrients including Gibraltar inputs, river inputs and atmospheric deposition are therefore of major importance for the biogeochemistry of the MS. The latter has long been considered to be driven mainly by nutrient exchanges at Gibraltar. However, recent studies indicate that river inputs significantly affect nutrients concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea, although their resulting impact on its biogeochemistry remains poorly understood. In this study, our aim was to help fill this knowledge gap by addressing the large-scale and long-term impact of variations in river inputs on the biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea over the last decades, using a coupled physical-biogeochemical 3D model (NEMO-MED12/Eco3M-Med). As a first result, it has been shown by the model that the strong diminution (60%) of phosphate (PO4) in river inputs into the Mediterranean Sea since the end of the 1980s induced a significant lowering of PO4 availability in the sub-surface layer of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin (EMB). One of the main consequences of PO4 diminution is the rise, never previously documented, of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the surface layer (by 20% on average over the EMB). Another main result concerns the gradual deepening of the top of the phosphacline during the period studied, thus generating a shift between the top of the nitracline and the top of the phosphacline in the EMB. This shift has already been observed in situ and documented in literature, but we propose here a new explanation for its occurrence in the EMB. The last main result is the evidence of the decline in abundance and the reduction of size of copepods calculated by the model over the years 1985-2010, that could partially explain the reduction in size of anchovy and sardine recently recorded in the MS. In this study, it is shown for the first time that the variations in river inputs that occurred in the last decades may have significantly altered the biogeochemical cycles of two key elements (P and C), in particular in the EMB. To conclude, the magnitude of the biogeochemical changes induced by river inputs and runoff alone over the last thirty years clearly calls for the use of realistic scenarios of river inputs along with climate scenarios for coupled physical-biogeochemical forecasts in the MS.

Résumé: Abstract. We investigate reference points for ecosystem indicators in support of an Ecosystem Approach to Fishery. In particular, we assess indicator capacity

Résumé: To investigate dispersal and connectivity between spawning and lagoon nursery habitats of the gilthead seabream, Sparus aurata, in the Gulf of Lions (northwestern Mediterranean Sea), we modeled the potential transport of the species’ larvae between its supposed main spawning site in the region (the Planier Island) and two of its main local nursery areas (the coastal lagoons of Thau and Salses-Leucate). Passive larval drift simulations using a dispersal biophysical model showed a large variability in the possible trajectories from spawning to nursery areas and in the predicted ages for larvae arrival on the two nursery sites. The most common ages at arrival obtained in the simulations (20–60 days) are broadly consistent with previous modeling studies but contrast with the actual ages of the S. aurata post-larvae collected in 2016 and 2017 at time of the lagoon entrances (60–90 days, from otolith readings). The period between 25 and 70 days being critical for gilthead seabream larvae to acquire sufficient swimming, osmoregulatory, and olfactory abilities to enter coastal lagoons, we argue that ontogenic development plays a crucial role in the transport and local retention of S. aurata larvae in the studied region, explaining the discrepancy between simulation results and observed data.

Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea is now recognized as a hotspot of global change, ranking among the fastest warming ocean regions. In order to project future plausible scenarios of marine biodiversity at the scale of the whole Mediterranean basin, the current challenge is to develop an explicit representation of the multispecies spatial dynamics under the combined influence of fishing pressure and climate change. Notwithstanding the advanced state-of-the-art modelling of food webs in the region, no previous studies have projected the consequences of climate change on marine ecosystems in an integrated way, considering changes in ocean dynamics, in phyto- and zoo-plankton productions, shifts in Mediterranean species distributions and their trophic interactions at the whole basin scale. We used an integrated modelling chain including a high-resolution regional climate model, a regional biogeochemistry model and a food web model OSMOSE to project the potential effects of climate change on biomass and catches for a wide array of species in the Mediterranean Sea. We showed that projected climate change would have large consequences for marine biodiversity by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5 with current fishing mortality). The total biomass of high trophic level species (fish and macroinvertebrates) is projected to increase by 5% and 22% while total catch is projected to increase by 0.3% and 7% by 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, respectively. However, these global increases masked strong spatial and inter-species contrasts. The bulk of increase in catch and biomass would be located in the southeastern part of the basin while total catch could decrease by up to 23% in the western part. Winner species would mainly belong to the pelagic group, are thermophilic and/or exotic, of smaller size and of low trophic level while loser species are generally large-sized, some of them of great commercial interest, and could suffer from a spatial mismatch with potential prey subsequent to a contraction or shift of their geographic range. Given the already poor conditions of exploited resources, our results suggest the need for fisheries management to adapt to future changes and to incorporate climate change impacts in future management strategy evaluation.

Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea (MS) is a semi-enclosed sea characterized by a zonal west-east gradient of oligotrophy, where microbial growth is controlled by phosphate availability in most situations. External inputs of nutrients including Gibraltar inputs, river inputs and atmospheric deposition are therefore of major importance for the biogeochemistry of the MS. This has long been considered to be driven mainly by nutrient exchanges at Gibraltar. However, recent studies indicate that river inputs significantly affect nutrients concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea, although their resulting impact on its biogeochemistry remains poorly understood. In this study, our aim was to make good this lack by addressing the large-scale and long-term impact of variations in river inputs on the biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea over the last decades, using a coupled physical-biogeochemical 3D model (NEMO-MED12/Eco3M-Med). As a first result, it has been shown by the model that the strong diminution (60 %) of phosphate (PO4) in river inputs into the Mediterranean Sea since the end of the 1980s induced a significant lowering of PO4 availability in the sub-surface layer of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin (EMB). One of the main consequences of PO4 diminution is the rise, never previously documented, of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the surface layer (by 20% on average over the EMB). Another main result concerns the gradual deepening of the top of the phosphacline during the period studied, thus generating a shift between the top of the nitracline and the top of the phosphacline in the EMB. This shift has already been observed in situ and documented in literature, but we propose here a new explanation for its occurrence in the EMB. The last main result is the evidence of the decline in abundance and the reduction of size of copepods calculated by the model over the years 1985-2010, that could partially explain the reduction in size of anchovy and sardine recently recorded in the MS. In this study, it is shown for the first time that the variations in river inputs that occurred in the last decades may have significantly altered the biogeochemical cycles of two key elements (P and C), in particular in the EMB. To conclude, the magnitude of the biogeochemical changes induced by river inputs and runoff alone over the last thirty years clearly calls for the use of realistic scenarios of river inputs along with climate scenarios for coupled physical-biogeochemical forecasts in the MS.