Nicolas Barrier
Informations
EMAIL : nicolas.barrier ird.fr
Bureau : +33 4 99 57 32 27
ADRESSE :
Avenue Jean Monnet - CS 30171 - 34203 - Sète cedex - FR
SITE PERSONNEL : http://www.nicolasbarrier.fr
Institut : /BOUCLE_groupemots>
IRD
LIEU GEOGRAPHIQUE : /BOUCLE_groupemots>
SETE
GRADE : /BOUCLE_groupemots>
IR
Gouvernance : /BOUCLE_groupemots>
CDE-Représentant(e) de pôle
Thèmes de recherche : /BOUCLE_groupemots>
Dynamique et fonctionnement des communautés
Pôles communs : /BOUCLE_groupemots>
Modélisation
//B_mots>
BIOGRAPHIE :
I am a research engineer in scientific calculation and numerical modelling. I started my carreer as a physical oceanographer, then specialised in the development of numerical models.
I am now in charge of the development of the Apecosm, Osmose and Ichthyop models.
Publications
2020 |
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Crochelet, E., et al. "Connectivity between seamounts and coastal ecosystems in the Southwestern Indian Ocean." Deep-Sea Res. Part II-Top. Stud. Oceanogr.. 176 (2020): 104774.
Résumé: Understanding larval connectivity patterns is critical for marine spatial planning, particularly for designing marine protected areas and managing fisheries. Patterns of larval dispersal and connectivity can be inferred from numerical transport models at large spatial and temporal scales. We assess model-based connectivity patterns between seamounts of the Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) and the coastal ecosystems of Mauritius, La Reunion, Madagascar, Mozambique and South Africa, with emphasis on three shallow seamounts (La Pemuse [LP], MAD-Ridge [MR] and Walters Shoal [WS]). Using drifter trajectory and a Lagrangian model of ichthyo-plankton dispersal, we show that larvae can undertake very long dispersion, with larval distances increasing with pelagic larval duration (PLD). There are three groups of greater connectivity: the region between the eastern coast of Madagascar, Mauritius and La Reunion islands; the seamounts of the South West Indian Ridge; and the pair formed by WS and a nearby un-named seamount. Connectivity between these three groups is evident only for the longest PLD examined (360 d). Connectivity from seamounts to coastal ecosystems is weak, with a maximum of 2% of larvae originating from seamounts reaching coastal ecosystems. Local retention at the three focal seamounts (LP, MR and WS) peaks at about 11% for the shortest PLD considered (15 d) at the most retentive seamount (WS) and decreases sharply with increasing PLD. Information on PLD and age of larvae collected at MR and LP are used to assess their putative origin. These larvae are likely self-recruits but it is also plausible that they immigrate from nearby coastal sites, i.e. the southern coast of Madagascar for MR and the islands of La Reunion and Mauritius for LP.
Mots-Clés: behavior; Biophysical model; Connectivity; conservation; coral-reef fishes; Ichthyop; Lagrangian modelling; larvae dispersal; Larval drift; Larval duration; local retention; madagascar; marine populations; model; population connectivity; recruitment; Seamounts; Southwestern indian ocean; Surface drifters
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Fu, C., et al. "The cumulative effects of fishing, plankton productivity, and marine mammal consumption in a marine ecosystem." Front. Mar. Sci.. 7 (2020).
Résumé: The marine ecosystem off British Columbia (BC), Canada, has experienced various changes in the last two decades. Understanding how stressors interactively and cumulatively affect commercially important fish species is key to moving towards ecosystem-based fisheries management. Because it is challenging to assess the cumulative effects of multiple stressors by using empirical data alone, a dynamic, individual-based spatially-explicit ecosystem modeling platform such as OSMOSE represents a valuable tool to simulate ecological processes and comprehensively evaluate how stressors cumulatively impact modelled species. In this study, we employed OSMOSE to investigate the cumulative effects of fishing, plankton biomass change, and marine mammal consumption on the dynamics of some fish species and the BC marine ecosystem as a whole. We specifically simulated ecosystem dynamics during the last 20 years under two sets of scenarios: (1) unfavorable conditions from the perspective of commercial fish species (i.e., doubling fishing rates, halving plankton biomass, and doubling marine mammal biomass, acting individually or collectively); and (2) favorable conditions with the three factors having opposite changes (i.e., halving fishing rates, doubling plankton biomass, and halving marine mammal biomass, acting individually or collectively). Our results indicate that, under unfavorable conditions, the degree to which species biomass was reduced varied among species, and that negative synergistic and negative dampened effects were dominant under historical and doubled fishing mortality rates, respectively. Under favorable conditions, species biomasses did not increase as much as expected due to the existence of complex predator-prey interactions among fish species, and positive synergistic and positive dampened effects were prevailing under historical and halved fishing mortality rates, respectively. The ecosystem total biomass and the biomass to fisheries yield ratio were found to be good ecological indicators to represent ecosystem changes and track the impacts from the multiple drivers of change. Our research provides insights on how fisheries management should adapt to prepare for potential future impacts of climate change.
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Lett, C., N. Barrier, and M. Bahlali. "Converging approaches for modeling the dispersal of propagules in air and sea." Ecol. Model.. 415 (2020): 108858.
Résumé: Terrestrial plants seeds, spores and pollen are often dispersed by wind. Likewise, most eggs and larvae of marine organisms are dispersed by oceanic currents. It was historically believed that the spatial scale at which dispersal occurs was orders of magnitude smaller for plants than for fish. However, recent empirical estimates of seed and larval dispersal suggest that these dispersal scales are more alike than previously thought. The modeling approaches used to simulate aerial and aquatic dispersal are also converging. Similar biophysical models are developed, in which outputs of Eulerian models simulating the main physical forcing mechanism (wind or currents) are used as inputs to Lagrangian models that include biological components (such as seed terminal velocity or larval vertical migration). These biophysical models are then used to simulate trajectories of the biological entities (seeds, larvae) in three dimensions. We reflect on these converging trends by first putting them into an historical perspective, and then by comparing the physical and biological processes represented in marine larva vs. terrestrial seed dispersal models, the data used for the models output corroboration, and the tools available to perform simulations. We conclude that this convergence offers the opportunity to bridge the gap between two scientific communities which are currently largely disconnected. More broadly, we also see our comparison across systems as a useful way to strengthen the links between aquatic and terrestrial ecology by sharing knowledge, methods, tools, and concepts.
Mots-Clés: Aerial dispersal; Aquatic dispersal; Atmospheric dispersal; Biophysical model; Eulerian model; Lagrangian model; larval dispersal; long-distance dispersal; Marine dispersal; Oceanic dispersal; particle trajectories; population connectivity; Propagule dispersal; reef fish; schooling behavior; seed dispersal; spatially explicit; terrestrial ecology; understanding recruitment; Wind dispersal
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Pagès, R., et al. "Projected effects of climate-induced changes in hydrodynamics on the biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean sea under the RCP 8.5 Regional Climate Scenario." Front. Mar. Sci.. 7 (2020).
Résumé: The Mediterranean region has been shown to be particularly exposed to climate change, with observed trends that are more pronounced than the global tendency. In forecast studies based on a RCP 8.5 scenario, there seems to be a consensus that, along with an increase in temperature and salinity over the next century, a reduction in the intensity of deep-water formation and a shallowing of the mixed layer (especially in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea (MS)) are expected. By contrast, only a few studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the biogeochemistry of the MS using a 3D physical/biogeochemical model. In this study, our aim was to explore the impact of the variations in hydrodynamic forcing induced by climate change on the biogeochemistry of the MS over the next century. For this purpose, high-resolution simulations under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario have been run using the regional climate system model CNRM-RCSM4 including the NEMO-MED8 marine component, coupled (off-line) with the biogeochemical model Eco3M-Med. The results of this scenario first highlight that most of the changes in the biogeochemistry of the MS will occur (under the RCP 8.5 scenario) after 2050. They suggest that the MS will become increasingly oligotrophic, and therefore less and less productive (14 % decrease in integrated primary production in the Western Basin and in the Eastern Basin). Significant changes would also occur in the planktonic food web, with a reduction (22 % in the Western Basin and 38 % in the Eastern Basin) of large phytoplankton species abundance in favour of small organisms. Organisms will also be more and more N-limited in the future since NO3 concentrations are expected to decline more than those of PO4 in the surface layer. All these changes would mainly concern the Western Basin, while the Eastern Basin would be less impacted.
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Pagès, R., et al. "Changes in rivers inputs during the last decades significantly impacted the biogeochemistry of the eastern Mediterranean basin: A modelling study." Prog. Oceanogr.. 181 (2020): 102242.
Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea (MS) is a semi-enclosed sea characterized by a zonal west-east gradient of oligotrophy, where microbial growth is controlled by phosphate availability in most situations. External inputs of nutrients including Gibraltar inputs, river inputs and atmospheric deposition are therefore of major importance for the biogeochemistry of the MS. The latter has long been considered to be driven mainly by nutrient exchanges at Gibraltar. However, recent studies indicate that river inputs significantly affect nutrients concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea, although their resulting impact on its biogeochemistry remains poorly understood. In this study, our aim was to help fill this knowledge gap by addressing the large-scale and long-term impact of variations in river inputs on the biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea over the last decades, using a coupled physical-biogeochemical 3D model (NEMO-MED12/Eco3M-Med). As a first result, it has been shown by the model that the strong diminution (60%) of phosphate (PO4) in river inputs into the Mediterranean Sea since the end of the 1980s induced a significant lowering of PO4 availability in the sub-surface layer of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin (EMB). One of the main consequences of PO4 diminution is the rise, never previously documented, of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the surface layer (by 20% on average over the EMB). Another main result concerns the gradual deepening of the top of the phosphacline during the period studied, thus generating a shift between the top of the nitracline and the top of the phosphacline in the EMB. This shift has already been observed in situ and documented in literature, but we propose here a new explanation for its occurrence in the EMB. The last main result is the evidence of the decline in abundance and the reduction of size of copepods calculated by the model over the years 1985-2010, that could partially explain the reduction in size of anchovy and sardine recently recorded in the MS. In this study, it is shown for the first time that the variations in river inputs that occurred in the last decades may have significantly altered the biogeochemical cycles of two key elements (P and C), in particular in the EMB. To conclude, the magnitude of the biogeochemical changes induced by river inputs and runoff alone over the last thirty years clearly calls for the use of realistic scenarios of river inputs along with climate scenarios for coupled physical-biogeochemical forecasts in the MS.
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Tagliabue, A., et al. "An iron cycle cascade governs the response of equatorial Pacific ecosystems to climate change." Glob. Change Biol.. 26.11 (2020): 6168–6179.
Résumé: Earth System Models project that global climate change will reduce ocean net primary production (NPP), upper trophic level biota biomass and potential fisheries catches in the future, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, projections from Earth System Models are undermined by poorly constrained assumptions regarding the biological cycling of iron, which is the main limiting resource for NPP over large parts of the ocean. In this study, we show that the climate change trends in NPP and the biomass of upper trophic levels are strongly affected by modifying assumptions associated with phytoplankton iron uptake. Using a suite of model experiments, we find 21st century climate change impacts on regional NPP range from -12.3% to +2.4% under a high emissions climate change scenario. This wide range arises from variations in the efficiency of iron retention in the upper ocean in the eastern equatorial Pacific across different scenarios of biological iron uptake, which affect the strength of regional iron limitation. Those scenarios where nitrogen limitation replaced iron limitation showed the largest projected NPP declines, while those where iron limitation was more resilient displayed little future change. All model scenarios have similar skill in reproducing past inter-annual variations in regional ocean NPP, largely due to limited change in the historical period. Ultimately, projections of end of century upper trophic level biomass change are altered by 50%-80% across all plausible scenarios. Overall, we find that uncertainties in the biological iron cycle cascade through open ocean pelagic ecosystems, from plankton to fish, affecting their evolution under climate change. This highlights additional challenges to developing effective conservation and fisheries management policies under climate change.
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2019 |
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Briton, F., et al. "Reference levels of ecosystem indicators at multispecies maximum sustainable yield." ICES J Mar Sci. 76.7 (2019): 2070–2081.
Résumé: Abstract. We investigate reference points for ecosystem indicators in support of an Ecosystem Approach to Fishery. In particular, we assess indicator capacity
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Grüss, A., et al. "Building bridges between global information systems on marine organisms and ecosystem models." Ecological Modelling. 398 (2019): 1–19.
Résumé: To facilitate the wider implementation of ecosystem modeling platforms and, thereby, to help advance ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) worldwide, tools delivering a large quantity of inputs to ecosystem models are needed. We developed a web application providing OSMOSE ecosystem models with values for trophic, growth and reproduction parameters derived from data from two global information systems (FishBase and SeaLifeBase). Our web application guides the user through simple queries to extract information from FishBase and SeaLifeBase data archives, and it delivers all the configuration files necessary for running an OSMOSE model. Here, we present our web application and demonstrate it for the West Florida Shelf ecosystem. Our software architecture can serve as a basis for designing other advanced web applications using FishBase and SeaLifeBase data in support of EBFM.
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Lett, C., et al. "Modeling larval dispersal for the gilthead seabream in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea." Marine Environmental Research (2019): 104781.
Résumé: To investigate dispersal and connectivity between spawning and lagoon nursery habitats of the gilthead seabream, Sparus aurata, in the Gulf of Lions (northwestern Mediterranean Sea), we modeled the potential transport of the species’ larvae between its supposed main spawning site in the region (the Planier Island) and two of its main local nursery areas (the coastal lagoons of Thau and Salses-Leucate). Passive larval drift simulations using a dispersal biophysical model showed a large variability in the possible trajectories from spawning to nursery areas and in the predicted ages for larvae arrival on the two nursery sites. The most common ages at arrival obtained in the simulations (20–60 days) are broadly consistent with previous modeling studies but contrast with the actual ages of the S. aurata post-larvae collected in 2016 and 2017 at time of the lagoon entrances (60–90 days, from otolith readings). The period between 25 and 70 days being critical for gilthead seabream larvae to acquire sufficient swimming, osmoregulatory, and olfactory abilities to enter coastal lagoons, we argue that ontogenic development plays a crucial role in the transport and local retention of S. aurata larvae in the studied region, explaining the discrepancy between simulation results and observed data.
Mots-Clés: Biophysical model; Connectivity; Fish; Gulf of Lions; Larvae; Models-hydrodynamic; Otolith
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Lotze, H. K., et al. "Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change." Pnas. 116.26 (2019): 12907–12912.
Résumé: While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
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Moullec, F., et al. "An End-to-End Model Reveals Losers and Winners in a Warming Mediterranean Sea." Front. Mar. Sci.. 6 (2019).
Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea is now recognized as a hotspot of global change, ranking among the fastest warming ocean regions. In order to project future plausible scenarios of marine biodiversity at the scale of the whole Mediterranean basin, the current challenge is to develop an explicit representation of the multispecies spatial dynamics under the combined influence of fishing pressure and climate change. Notwithstanding the advanced state-of-the-art modelling of food webs in the region, no previous studies have projected the consequences of climate change on marine ecosystems in an integrated way, considering changes in ocean dynamics, in phyto- and zoo-plankton productions, shifts in Mediterranean species distributions and their trophic interactions at the whole basin scale. We used an integrated modelling chain including a high-resolution regional climate model, a regional biogeochemistry model and a food web model OSMOSE to project the potential effects of climate change on biomass and catches for a wide array of species in the Mediterranean Sea. We showed that projected climate change would have large consequences for marine biodiversity by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5 with current fishing mortality). The total biomass of high trophic level species (fish and macroinvertebrates) is projected to increase by 5% and 22% while total catch is projected to increase by 0.3% and 7% by 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, respectively. However, these global increases masked strong spatial and inter-species contrasts. The bulk of increase in catch and biomass would be located in the southeastern part of the basin while total catch could decrease by up to 23% in the western part. Winner species would mainly belong to the pelagic group, are thermophilic and/or exotic, of smaller size and of low trophic level while loser species are generally large-sized, some of them of great commercial interest, and could suffer from a spatial mismatch with potential prey subsequent to a contraction or shift of their geographic range. Given the already poor conditions of exploited resources, our results suggest the need for fisheries management to adapt to future changes and to incorporate climate change impacts in future management strategy evaluation.
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Moullec, F., et al. "Capturing the big picture of Mediterranean marine biodiversity with an end-to-end model of climate and fishing impacts." Progress in Oceanography. 178 (2019): 102179.
Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea is one of the main hotspots of marine biodiversity in the world. The combined pressures of fishing activity and climate change have also made it a hotspot of global change amidst increasing concern about the worsening status of exploited marine species. To anticipate the impacts of global changes in the Mediterranean Sea, more integrated modelling approaches are needed, which can then help policymakers prioritize management actions and formulate strategies to mitigate impacts and adapt to changes. The aim of this study was to develop a holistic model of marine biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea with an explicit representation of the spatial, multispecies dynamics of exploited resources subject to the combined influence of climate variability and fishing pressure. To this end, we used the individual-based OSMOSE model (Object-oriented Simulator of Marine ecOSystEms), including 100 marine species (fish, cephalopods and crustaceans) representing about 95% of the total declared catch, at a high spatial resolution (400 km2) and a large spatial scale (the entire Mediterranean basin) – the first time such a resolution and scale have been modelled. We then combined OSMOSE with the NEMOMED 12 physical model and the Eco3M-S biogeochemical low trophic level model to build the end-to-end model, OSMOSE-MED. We fitted OSMOSE-MED model with observed or estimated biomass and commercial catch data using a likelihood approach and an evolutionary optimization algorithm. The outputs of OSMOSE-MED were then verified against observed biomass and catch data, and compared with independent datasets (MEDITS data, diet composition and trophic levels). The model results – at different hierarchical levels, from individuals to the scale of the ecosystem – were consistent with current knowledge of the structure, functioning and dynamics of the ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea. While the model could be further improved in future iterations, all the modelling steps – the comprehensive representation of key ecological processes and feedback, the selective parameterization of the model, and the comparison with observed data in the validation process – strengthened the predictive performance of OSMOSE-MED and thus its relevance as an impact model to explore the future of marine biodiversity under scenarios of global change. It is a promising tool to support ecosystem-based fishery management in the Mediterranean Sea.
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Pagès, R., et al. "Changes in rivers inputs during the last decades significantly impacted the biogeochemistry of the eastern Mediterranean basin: a modelling study." Progress in Oceanography (2019): 102242.
Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea (MS) is a semi-enclosed sea characterized by a zonal west-east gradient of oligotrophy, where microbial growth is controlled by phosphate availability in most situations. External inputs of nutrients including Gibraltar inputs, river inputs and atmospheric deposition are therefore of major importance for the biogeochemistry of the MS. This has long been considered to be driven mainly by nutrient exchanges at Gibraltar. However, recent studies indicate that river inputs significantly affect nutrients concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea, although their resulting impact on its biogeochemistry remains poorly understood. In this study, our aim was to make good this lack by addressing the large-scale and long-term impact of variations in river inputs on the biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea over the last decades, using a coupled physical-biogeochemical 3D model (NEMO-MED12/Eco3M-Med). As a first result, it has been shown by the model that the strong diminution (60 %) of phosphate (PO4) in river inputs into the Mediterranean Sea since the end of the 1980s induced a significant lowering of PO4 availability in the sub-surface layer of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin (EMB). One of the main consequences of PO4 diminution is the rise, never previously documented, of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the surface layer (by 20% on average over the EMB). Another main result concerns the gradual deepening of the top of the phosphacline during the period studied, thus generating a shift between the top of the nitracline and the top of the phosphacline in the EMB. This shift has already been observed in situ and documented in literature, but we propose here a new explanation for its occurrence in the EMB. The last main result is the evidence of the decline in abundance and the reduction of size of copepods calculated by the model over the years 1985-2010, that could partially explain the reduction in size of anchovy and sardine recently recorded in the MS. In this study, it is shown for the first time that the variations in river inputs that occurred in the last decades may have significantly altered the biogeochemical cycles of two key elements (P and C), in particular in the EMB. To conclude, the magnitude of the biogeochemical changes induced by river inputs and runoff alone over the last thirty years clearly calls for the use of realistic scenarios of river inputs along with climate scenarios for coupled physical-biogeochemical forecasts in the MS.
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2018 |
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Lotze, H. K., et al. "Ensemble projections of global ocean animal biomass with climate change." bioRxiv (2018): 467175.
Résumé: Climate change is shifting the abundance and distribution of marine species with consequences for ecosystem functioning, seafood supply, management and conservation. Several approaches for future projection exist but these have never been compared systematically to assess their variability. We conducted standardized ensemble projections including 6 global fisheries and marine ecosystem models, forced with 2 Earth-system models and 4 emission scenarios in a fished and unfished ocean, to derive average trends and associated uncertainties. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (standard deviation 4%) under low and 17% (standard deviation 11%) under high emissions by 2100, primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. These climate-change effects were slightly weaker for larger animals and in a fished ocean. Considerable regional variation ranged from strong biomass increases in high latitudes to strong decreases in mid-low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to differences among ecosystem or Earth-system models were similar, suggesting equal need for model improvement. Our ensemble projections provide the most comprehensive outlook on potential climate-driven ecological changes in the ocean to date. Realized future trends will largely depend on how fisheries and management adapt to these changes in a changing climate.
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