Résumé: The marine ecosystem off British Columbia (BC), Canada, has experienced various changes in the last two decades. Understanding how stressors interactively and cumulatively affect commercially important fish species is key to moving towards ecosystem-based fisheries management. Because it is challenging to assess the cumulative effects of multiple stressors by using empirical data alone, a dynamic, individual-based spatially-explicit ecosystem modeling platform such as OSMOSE represents a valuable tool to simulate ecological processes and comprehensively evaluate how stressors cumulatively impact modelled species. In this study, we employed OSMOSE to investigate the cumulative effects of fishing, plankton biomass change, and marine mammal consumption on the dynamics of some fish species and the BC marine ecosystem as a whole. We specifically simulated ecosystem dynamics during the last 20 years under two sets of scenarios: (1) unfavorable conditions from the perspective of commercial fish species (i.e., doubling fishing rates, halving plankton biomass, and doubling marine mammal biomass, acting individually or collectively); and (2) favorable conditions with the three factors having opposite changes (i.e., halving fishing rates, doubling plankton biomass, and halving marine mammal biomass, acting individually or collectively). Our results indicate that, under unfavorable conditions, the degree to which species biomass was reduced varied among species, and that negative synergistic and negative dampened effects were dominant under historical and doubled fishing mortality rates, respectively. Under favorable conditions, species biomasses did not increase as much as expected due to the existence of complex predator-prey interactions among fish species, and positive synergistic and positive dampened effects were prevailing under historical and halved fishing mortality rates, respectively. The ecosystem total biomass and the biomass to fisheries yield ratio were found to be good ecological indicators to represent ecosystem changes and track the impacts from the multiple drivers of change. Our research provides insights on how fisheries management should adapt to prepare for potential future impacts of climate change.

Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea (MS) is a semi-enclosed sea characterized by a zonal west-east gradient of oligotrophy, where microbial growth is controlled by phosphate availability in most situations. External inputs of nutrients including Gibraltar inputs, river inputs and atmospheric deposition are therefore of major importance for the biogeochemistry of the MS. The latter has long been considered to be driven mainly by nutrient exchanges at Gibraltar. However, recent studies indicate that river inputs significantly affect nutrients concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea, although their resulting impact on its biogeochemistry remains poorly understood. In this study, our aim was to help fill this knowledge gap by addressing the large-scale and long-term impact of variations in river inputs on the biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea over the last decades, using a coupled physical-biogeochemical 3D model (NEMO-MED12/Eco3M-Med). As a first result, it has been shown by the model that the strong diminution (60%) of phosphate (PO4) in river inputs into the Mediterranean Sea since the end of the 1980s induced a significant lowering of PO4 availability in the sub-surface layer of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin (EMB). One of the main consequences of PO4 diminution is the rise, never previously documented, of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the surface layer (by 20% on average over the EMB). Another main result concerns the gradual deepening of the top of the phosphacline during the period studied, thus generating a shift between the top of the nitracline and the top of the phosphacline in the EMB. This shift has already been observed in situ and documented in literature, but we propose here a new explanation for its occurrence in the EMB. The last main result is the evidence of the decline in abundance and the reduction of size of copepods calculated by the model over the years 1985-2010, that could partially explain the reduction in size of anchovy and sardine recently recorded in the MS. In this study, it is shown for the first time that the variations in river inputs that occurred in the last decades may have significantly altered the biogeochemical cycles of two key elements (P and C), in particular in the EMB. To conclude, the magnitude of the biogeochemical changes induced by river inputs and runoff alone over the last thirty years clearly calls for the use of realistic scenarios of river inputs along with climate scenarios for coupled physical-biogeochemical forecasts in the MS.

Résumé: Abstract. We investigate reference points for ecosystem indicators in support of an Ecosystem Approach to Fishery. In particular, we assess indicator capacity

Résumé: To investigate dispersal and connectivity between spawning and lagoon nursery habitats of the gilthead seabream, Sparus aurata, in the Gulf of Lions (northwestern Mediterranean Sea), we modeled the potential transport of the species’ larvae between its supposed main spawning site in the region (the Planier Island) and two of its main local nursery areas (the coastal lagoons of Thau and Salses-Leucate). Passive larval drift simulations using a dispersal biophysical model showed a large variability in the possible trajectories from spawning to nursery areas and in the predicted ages for larvae arrival on the two nursery sites. The most common ages at arrival obtained in the simulations (20–60 days) are broadly consistent with previous modeling studies but contrast with the actual ages of the S. aurata post-larvae collected in 2016 and 2017 at time of the lagoon entrances (60–90 days, from otolith readings). The period between 25 and 70 days being critical for gilthead seabream larvae to acquire sufficient swimming, osmoregulatory, and olfactory abilities to enter coastal lagoons, we argue that ontogenic development plays a crucial role in the transport and local retention of S. aurata larvae in the studied region, explaining the discrepancy between simulation results and observed data.

Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea is now recognized as a hotspot of global change, ranking among the fastest warming ocean regions. In order to project future plausible scenarios of marine biodiversity at the scale of the whole Mediterranean basin, the current challenge is to develop an explicit representation of the multispecies spatial dynamics under the combined influence of fishing pressure and climate change. Notwithstanding the advanced state-of-the-art modelling of food webs in the region, no previous studies have projected the consequences of climate change on marine ecosystems in an integrated way, considering changes in ocean dynamics, in phyto- and zoo-plankton productions, shifts in Mediterranean species distributions and their trophic interactions at the whole basin scale. We used an integrated modelling chain including a high-resolution regional climate model, a regional biogeochemistry model and a food web model OSMOSE to project the potential effects of climate change on biomass and catches for a wide array of species in the Mediterranean Sea. We showed that projected climate change would have large consequences for marine biodiversity by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5 with current fishing mortality). The total biomass of high trophic level species (fish and macroinvertebrates) is projected to increase by 5% and 22% while total catch is projected to increase by 0.3% and 7% by 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, respectively. However, these global increases masked strong spatial and inter-species contrasts. The bulk of increase in catch and biomass would be located in the southeastern part of the basin while total catch could decrease by up to 23% in the western part. Winner species would mainly belong to the pelagic group, are thermophilic and/or exotic, of smaller size and of low trophic level while loser species are generally large-sized, some of them of great commercial interest, and could suffer from a spatial mismatch with potential prey subsequent to a contraction or shift of their geographic range. Given the already poor conditions of exploited resources, our results suggest the need for fisheries management to adapt to future changes and to incorporate climate change impacts in future management strategy evaluation.

Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea (MS) is a semi-enclosed sea characterized by a zonal west-east gradient of oligotrophy, where microbial growth is controlled by phosphate availability in most situations. External inputs of nutrients including Gibraltar inputs, river inputs and atmospheric deposition are therefore of major importance for the biogeochemistry of the MS. This has long been considered to be driven mainly by nutrient exchanges at Gibraltar. However, recent studies indicate that river inputs significantly affect nutrients concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea, although their resulting impact on its biogeochemistry remains poorly understood. In this study, our aim was to make good this lack by addressing the large-scale and long-term impact of variations in river inputs on the biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea over the last decades, using a coupled physical-biogeochemical 3D model (NEMO-MED12/Eco3M-Med). As a first result, it has been shown by the model that the strong diminution (60 %) of phosphate (PO4) in river inputs into the Mediterranean Sea since the end of the 1980s induced a significant lowering of PO4 availability in the sub-surface layer of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin (EMB). One of the main consequences of PO4 diminution is the rise, never previously documented, of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the surface layer (by 20% on average over the EMB). Another main result concerns the gradual deepening of the top of the phosphacline during the period studied, thus generating a shift between the top of the nitracline and the top of the phosphacline in the EMB. This shift has already been observed in situ and documented in literature, but we propose here a new explanation for its occurrence in the EMB. The last main result is the evidence of the decline in abundance and the reduction of size of copepods calculated by the model over the years 1985-2010, that could partially explain the reduction in size of anchovy and sardine recently recorded in the MS. In this study, it is shown for the first time that the variations in river inputs that occurred in the last decades may have significantly altered the biogeochemical cycles of two key elements (P and C), in particular in the EMB. To conclude, the magnitude of the biogeochemical changes induced by river inputs and runoff alone over the last thirty years clearly calls for the use of realistic scenarios of river inputs along with climate scenarios for coupled physical-biogeochemical forecasts in the MS.