Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea (MS) is a semi-enclosed sea characterized by a zonal west-east gradient of oligotrophy, where microbial growth is controlled by phosphate availability in most situations. External inputs of nutrients including Gibraltar inputs, river inputs and atmospheric deposition are therefore of major importance for the biogeochemistry of the MS. The latter has long been considered to be driven mainly by nutrient exchanges at Gibraltar. However, recent studies indicate that river inputs significantly affect nutrients concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea, although their resulting impact on its biogeochemistry remains poorly understood. In this study, our aim was to help fill this knowledge gap by addressing the large-scale and long-term impact of variations in river inputs on the biogeochemistry of the Mediterranean Sea over the last decades, using a coupled physical-biogeochemical 3D model (NEMO-MED12/Eco3M-Med). As a first result, it has been shown by the model that the strong diminution (60%) of phosphate (PO4) in river inputs into the Mediterranean Sea since the end of the 1980s induced a significant lowering of PO4 availability in the sub-surface layer of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin (EMB). One of the main consequences of PO4 diminution is the rise, never previously documented, of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the surface layer (by 20% on average over the EMB). Another main result concerns the gradual deepening of the top of the phosphacline during the period studied, thus generating a shift between the top of the nitracline and the top of the phosphacline in the EMB. This shift has already been observed in situ and documented in literature, but we propose here a new explanation for its occurrence in the EMB. The last main result is the evidence of the decline in abundance and the reduction of size of copepods calculated by the model over the years 1985-2010, that could partially explain the reduction in size of anchovy and sardine recently recorded in the MS. In this study, it is shown for the first time that the variations in river inputs that occurred in the last decades may have significantly altered the biogeochemical cycles of two key elements (P and C), in particular in the EMB. To conclude, the magnitude of the biogeochemical changes induced by river inputs and runoff alone over the last thirty years clearly calls for the use of realistic scenarios of river inputs along with climate scenarios for coupled physical-biogeochemical forecasts in the MS.

Résumé: To facilitate the wider implementation of ecosystem modeling platforms and, thereby, to help advance ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) worldwide, tools delivering a large quantity of inputs to ecosystem models are needed. We developed a web application providing OSMOSE ecosystem models with values for trophic, growth and reproduction parameters derived from data from two global information systems (FishBase and SeaLifeBase). Our web application guides the user through simple queries to extract information from FishBase and SeaLifeBase data archives, and it delivers all the configuration files necessary for running an OSMOSE model. Here, we present our web application and demonstrate it for the West Florida Shelf ecosystem. Our software architecture can serve as a basis for designing other advanced web applications using FishBase and SeaLifeBase data in support of EBFM.

Résumé: While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Résumé: The Mediterranean Sea is one of the main hotspots of marine biodiversity in the world. The combined pressures of fishing activity and climate change have also made it a hotspot of global change amidst increasing concern about the worsening status of exploited marine species. To anticipate the impacts of global changes in the Mediterranean Sea, more integrated modelling approaches are needed, which can then help policymakers prioritize management actions and formulate strategies to mitigate impacts and adapt to changes. The aim of this study was to develop a holistic model of marine biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea with an explicit representation of the spatial, multispecies dynamics of exploited resources subject to the combined influence of climate variability and fishing pressure. To this end, we used the individual-based OSMOSE model (Object-oriented Simulator of Marine ecOSystEms), including 100 marine species (fish, cephalopods and crustaceans) representing about 95% of the total declared catch, at a high spatial resolution (400 km2) and a large spatial scale (the entire Mediterranean basin) – the first time such a resolution and scale have been modelled. We then combined OSMOSE with the NEMOMED 12 physical model and the Eco3M-S biogeochemical low trophic level model to build the end-to-end model, OSMOSE-MED. We fitted OSMOSE-MED model with observed or estimated biomass and commercial catch data using a likelihood approach and an evolutionary optimization algorithm. The outputs of OSMOSE-MED were then verified against observed biomass and catch data, and compared with independent datasets (MEDITS data, diet composition and trophic levels). The model results – at different hierarchical levels, from individuals to the scale of the ecosystem – were consistent with current knowledge of the structure, functioning and dynamics of the ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea. While the model could be further improved in future iterations, all the modelling steps – the comprehensive representation of key ecological processes and feedback, the selective parameterization of the model, and the comparison with observed data in the validation process – strengthened the predictive performance of OSMOSE-MED and thus its relevance as an impact model to explore the future of marine biodiversity under scenarios of global change. It is a promising tool to support ecosystem-based fishery management in the Mediterranean Sea.

Résumé: Climate change is shifting the abundance and distribution of marine species with consequences for ecosystem functioning, seafood supply, management and conservation. Several approaches for future projection exist but these have never been compared systematically to assess their variability. We conducted standardized ensemble projections including 6 global fisheries and marine ecosystem models, forced with 2 Earth-system models and 4 emission scenarios in a fished and unfished ocean, to derive average trends and associated uncertainties. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (standard deviation 4%) under low and 17% (standard deviation 11%) under high emissions by 2100, primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. These climate-change effects were slightly weaker for larger animals and in a fished ocean. Considerable regional variation ranged from strong biomass increases in high latitudes to strong decreases in mid-low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to differences among ecosystem or Earth-system models were similar, suggesting equal need for model improvement. Our ensemble projections provide the most comprehensive outlook on potential climate-driven ecological changes in the ocean to date. Realized future trends will largely depend on how fisheries and management adapt to these changes in a changing climate.